日本宏观审慎监管的政策效果与启示--基于信贷周期调控的视角  

Effectiveness and Edification of Japan's Macro-prudential Policies——Evidences from Credit Cycle Regulation

作　　者：于震[1,2] 张超磊[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院 [2]吉林大学中日经济共同研究中心 [3]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2015年第4期34-44,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“我国信贷周期及其宏观审慎监管研究”(项目批准号:12CJY109);国家社科基金青年项目“我国现阶段潜在产出及产出缺口变动特征研究”(项目批准号:11CJL012);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国信贷周期研究”(项目批准号:11YJC790113);吉林大学哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目“国际金融理论创新与国际货币体系改革研究”(项目批准号:2012FRTD02)的资助

摘　　要：金融危机的频繁发生使各国金融监管部门充分意识到,宏观审慎监管是有效防范系统性金融风险的有力工具。日本作为银行主导型金融体系的代表,为应对巨额银行坏账,从2002年开始实施金融再生计划,并将宏观审慎监管理念成功注入金融监管中,金融体系稳健性得到了显著提升。基于这一背景,本文采用多种实证分析方法,以2003年为分界点,检验了日本信贷周期与经济周期关联性的前后变化。结果表明,日本向宏观审慎监管过渡后,信贷周期存在阶段性逆经济周期现象,即宏观审慎监管有效抑制了信贷顺周期性,阻止了金融系统性风险向实体经济的转移。日本宏观审慎监管实践对于中国宏观审慎监管体系的建立和完善具有一定启示和借鉴作用。The frequent financial crises made the financial regulatory authorities in the world fully realize that the macro-prudential regulation was a more effective tool to prevent systemic financial risk, compared with the micro-prudential regulation. With a typical bank dominated financial system, Japan started financial regeneration plans and strengthened the macro-prudential regulation from 2002 to deal with the huge bad debts. Based on this background, this paper analyzes the correlation between the credit cycle and the business cycle in Japan from 1991Q3-2013Q3 using several methods and taking 2003 as the division point. The results show that after the implementation of macro-prudential supervision in Japan, the cor- relation between the credit cycle and the business cycle becomes significantly negative. In others words, macro-prudential regulation had effectively restrained the credit cycle and blocked the transmission of the financial systemic risk to the real e- conomy. Japan＇s practical experiences in macro-prudential supervision give some insights for China in this field.

关 键 词：日本 宏观审慎监管 信贷周期 经济周期 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]