战略性新兴产业存在产能过剩吗?——以中国光伏产业为例  

Is Production Capacity of Strategic Emerging Industries Becoming Excessive?——A Case Study of Chinese Photovoltaic Industry

作　　者：王辉[1] 张月友[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]南京财经大学现代服务业研究院,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2015年第1期61-70,82,共11页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究"(项目编号:11&ZD073);国家社会科学基金一般项目"非股权安排对中国企业海外投资的影响及政策研究"(项目编号:12BGJ039);江苏省社科基金重大项目"利用市场机制倒逼江苏产业结构调整研究"(项目编号:13ZD006);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目"利用负面清单制度调整优化江苏产业结构研究"(项目编号:2014SJB136)的资助

摘　　要：利用58家中国光伏产业上市公司2005~2012年季度数据,采用生产函数法,测度其产能利用情况,考察中国战略性新兴产业的产能过剩程度、成因和化解路径。研究发现：除了2008年、2010年和2011年外,中国光伏产业在其余年份的产能利用率均不足70%,2012年的产能利用率只有60%;中国光伏产业的资本产出弹性偏低,产业发展陷入了传统劳动密集型产业处于低端环节的发展老路;2005~2012年,中国光伏产业的产能过剩经历了四个阶段的升降交替,但总体上并未脱离新兴产业发展规律而出现严重的发展危机。文章认为中国光伏产业产能过剩由结构性过剩和体制性过剩构成,供需结构失衡、过度投资和用传统产业的发展思路发展新兴产业等因素是中国光伏产业产能过剩的主要原因。化解中国新兴产业的产能过剩,有必要迅速启动内需,构建＂市场发挥决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用＂的新兴产业产能过剩治理机制,走＂四个一批＂的化解路径。Based on fifty-eight listed companies＇ quarterly data of photovoltaic industry,this paper makes use of the method of production function to measure the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic industry of China from 2005 to 2012,and investigates the degree,causes and settlements of excess production capacity of Chinese strategic emerging industries. Results of the study show that： except for the years of 2008,2010 and 2011,capacity utilization rate are below 70 percent in all the rest years,and in 2012 it is only 60 percent. Photovoltaic industry＇s output elasticity of capital is low,indicating that development of photovoltaic falls into low-end links. Excess production capacity experiences four stages of going up and down alternately,but it does not digress from development law of emerging industries and hence photovoltaic industry does not have developmental crisis. This paper argues that the type of Photovoltaic industry＇s excess production capacity consists of structural excess and systematic excess,and imbalance between supply and demand,over-investment and the development ideas of emerging industries which is the same as traditional industries play an important role in excess production capacity. To dissolve emerging industries＇ excess production capacity,it is necessary to stimulate domestic demand quickly,build an excess production capacity governance mechanism where market mechanism plays a decisive role and government can better play its role,and take some effective measures.

关 键 词：战略性新兴产业 光伏产业 产能过剩 市场机制 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]