基于MaxEnt模型湖南双季稻种植气候适宜性分布研究  

Research on Double Rice Climatic Suitability Planting Regions Based on MaxEnt Model in Hunan

作　　者：谢佰承[1,2] 杜东升[3] 陆魁东[1] 段居琦[4] 刘富来[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象科学研究所,长沙410118 [2]西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [3]湖南省气候中心,长沙410118 [4]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第9期247-251,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国气象局公益性行业(气象行业)科研专项"超级稻超高产栽培气象保障技术研究"(GYHY201206020)

摘　　要：通过查阅了相关文献资料,选取了适宜湖南水稻种植分布8个潜在的气候因子和湖南17个双季稻农业气象观测站点位置信息,利用Max Ent模型,构建了湖南杂交水稻潜在种植分布与气候因子关系模型,得出影响湖南水稻种植的主要气候因子,以及湖南水稻适宜性种植分布区域。结果表明：10-22℃活动积温、4—10月日照时数、稳定通过22℃持续日数、4—10月降水量为影响种植湖南双季杂交稻主导气候因子。并进一步通过得到的主导气候因子,采用Max Ent模型再次进行湖南双季杂交水稻适宜种植性分区,将湖南省双季稻制种植分布划分为：最适宜区、适宜区、低适宜区和不适宜区。本研究的主要目的是在省级层面上利用Max Ent模型筛选影响湖南水稻种植主导气象因子,并对湖南水稻适宜性种植分布做了不同等级划分,为优化湖南双季杂交稻生产布局、改进种植制度和确保粮食生产安全提供了一定气象参考依据。The paper aims to explore the potential climatic factors of rice planting. 17 rice conservationstations＇ geographical information was taken as analysis sample and the relationship model between riceplanting distribution and environment factors were established according to the maximum entropy model andGIS software, to discuss the rice climatic suitability planting distribution and define the influencing climaticfactors. The result showed that： accumulated temperature from 10 to 22℃, sunshine duration from April toOctober, days of no less than 22℃ stably and annual precipitations from April to October were majorinfluencing factors of double rice planting distribution. Furthermore, the author used these critical factors andMax Ent model to divide the climatic suitability of potential double rice planting regions into four levels：optimum area, suitable area, less suitable area and unsuitable area. The climatic factors affecting double riceplanting were discussed in the scale of province. The study could provide reference for reasonable use ofclimatic resources, scientific planning of double rice planting and policy making in coping with the climatechange.

关 键 词：最大熵模型(MaxEnt) 湖南双季杂交稻 主导气候因子 气候适宜性 

分 类 号：S3[农业科学—农艺学]