基于BP的城市化与生态环境耦合脆弱性与协调性动态模拟研究——以黑龙江省东部煤电化基地为例  

Dynamic Simulation of Vulnerability and Coordination of the Coupling of Urban and Ecological Environment Based on BP: A Case of the Coal-electricity Base in the Eastern Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：陈晓红[1] 吴广斌[1] 万鲁河[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室/地理科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《地理科学》2014年第11期1337-1343,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41101548);哈尔滨师范大学科技发展国家预研项目(11XYG-01);哈尔滨师范大学人文社会科学优秀青年学者支持项目(SYQ2014-06);黑龙江省高等学校科技创新团队建设计划项目(2010td10)资助

摘　　要：将城市化与生态环境耦合脆弱的典型地区——黑龙江省东部煤电化基地作为研究区域，运用BP神经网络结合模糊综合评判法，利用2004～2010年指标数据，在对2010年城市化与生态环境耦合脆弱性与协调性现状评价的基础上，预测了2013～2022年城市化与生态环境耦合脆弱性与协调性，深入分析了城市化与生态环境耦合脆弱性与协调性关系未来演变趋势。结果表明：鹤岗、双鸭山、鸡西具有较重脆弱度，并且有向中度脆弱度过渡的趋势；佳木斯以中度脆弱度为主，但是向较轻脆弱度发展比较缓慢；七台河、牡丹江则以较轻脆弱度为主，但七台河重度脆弱度和较重脆弱度所占比重也比较大，牡丹江脆弱度情况明显优于七台河。鹤岗、双鸭山、鸡西协调度等级为中度失调；佳木斯与七台河协调度等级为濒临失调；牡丹江的协调度等级为良好协调。而脆弱性与协调性关系比较中，七台河脆弱性趋小值与协调性发展值关系为同时退化发展，但趋势比较缓慢；牡丹江则基本保持现有状态；其它城市均为同时向良好等级发展的趋势，但发展的速率和波动略有不同。The research area of this article is the coal-electricity base in eastern Heilongjiang Province, which is a typical coupling of urban and ecological environment. By the supporting of BP neural network and combin- ing the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, this article predicts the vulnerability and coordination of the coupling of urban and ecological environment from 2013 to 2022 in the coal-electricity base in the eastern Heilongjiang Province. The results show that Hegang, Shuangyashan, Jixi are the heavier vulnerability dis- tricts; Jiamusi belongs to moderate vulnerability, but developing speed is more slowly; Qitaihe and Mudanji- ang are mild vulnerability, but severe vulnerability and heavier proportion in Qitaihe is relatively large, and vul- nerability in Mudanfiang is better than that in Qitaihe; Hegang, Shuangyashan and Jixi are moderate disorders districts, Jiamusi and Qitaihe are endangered disharmony, and coordination grade in Mudanjiang is good coor- dination. The results of the relationship between vulnerability and coordination show that Qitaihe is slowly de- cline; Mudanjiang is basically flat; the others are slowly rising. It indicated that the overall vulnerability and coordination of the coupling of urban and ecological environment in the coal-electricity base in the eastern Hei- longjiang Province are not optimistic and the reference of scientific significance could be provided to the eco-environmental protection and reasonable urbanization road by this research.

关 键 词：BP神经网络 城市化与生态环境耦合 协调性 脆弱性 黑龙江东部煤电化基地 

分 类 号：F253.9[经济管理—国民经济]