新疆近半个世纪以来季节性干旱变化特征及其影响研究  

Evolution Characteristics of Seasonal Drought in Xinjiang During Past 48 Years : Possible Causes and Implications

作　　者：孙鹏[1,2,3] 张强[1,2,3] 刘剑宇 邓晓宇[1,2,3] 白云岗[4] 张江辉[4] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275 [4]新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830049

出　　处：《地理科学》2014年第11期1377-1384,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目(201331104);国家自然基金项目(项目号:41071020);"中山大学博士研究生创新人才培养资助项目";新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目共同资助

摘　　要：系统分析新疆不同季节的干旱时空分布,讨论干旱对新疆农业生产的影响,研究结果表明:1新疆四季干旱整体异常均表现为北疆旱(湿润)南疆湿润(旱)或西部干旱(湿润)东部湿润(干旱)2种基本结构。新疆夏季和冬季有向湿润或涝的趋势发展;2北疆西部及北疆南部干旱影响范围减小趋势明显;冬季干旱影响范围减小明显;3北疆地区的受旱面积增加趋势不显著,南疆地区和东疆地区受旱面积显著增加,干旱除受降水影响外,还受到抗旱灌溉设施、抗旱能力、耕地面积的影响。Seasonal drought index were diagnosed by the methods of Standardized Precipitation Index （SPI）, Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions （REOF） and Mann-Kendall test. What＇s more, how drought impact on agricultural in Xinjiang that was discussed. The results show that： 1） The REOF could reflect the two whole ab- normal anomaly structures of drought and flood in each season in Xinjiang, for example, wet （or dry） in north- ern Xinjiang and dry （or wet） in southern Xinjiang pattern, wet （or dry） in the eastem Xinjiang and dry （or wet） in the western Xinjiang. SPI3 and time coefficient of the stations in the summer and winter is increasing significantly, the summer and winter in Xinjiang is tend to be wet or drought. 2） The area of influence of each drought in the northwest of Xinjiang and north slope of Tienshan mountains have obviously decreasing trend. Area of influence of each drought decreasing have obviously decreasing trend in winter. 3） Drought-affected crop area have not significantly increased in the northern Xinjiang, while Drought-affected crop area have sig- nificantly increased in the southern and eastern Xinjiang. Drought is influenced by irrigation facilities, drought-resistant ability, intensive use of cultivated land and the growth rate of cultivated land area except pre- cipitation.

关 键 词：标准化降水指数 旋转经验正交函数 干旱时空特征 新疆 

分 类 号：F512.2[经济管理—产业经济]