基于层次模型及权重分析的湖北省雷电灾害易损度区划  

Vulnerability Zoning of Lightning Disaster in Hubei Province Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) Model and Weight Analysis

作　　者：朱传林[1] 王学良[1] 贺姗[1] 刘国臻[2] 李政[1] 王小飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省防雷中心,武汉430074 [2]湖北省十堰市气象局,湖北十堰442000

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第8期206-211,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2012Q02)

摘　　要：利用湖北省2008—2011年闪电监测数据和2000—2009年雷电灾害统计数据,选取雷击大地密度、大于50k A强雷击密度、雷电灾害频度、生命易损模数及经济易损模数作为湖北省雷电灾害易损性评估指标。提出了对雷灾频度因子的修正,只有把该参数放到同一起点比较,雷电灾害易损性分析及风险区划才具科学性,同时引入大于50k A强雷击密度作为雷电灾害易损性评估指标之一。采用层次模型及权重分析对雷电灾害易损性指标划分了5个等级,最后形成湖北省雷电灾害易损度区划。研究结果表明:高风险区的城市主要特征是雷灾频度较高、经济发展水平较好、人口密集;低风险区则与之相反。雷电灾害易损度不仅与单位面积上的雷电密度、雷灾频度关系密切,还与单位面积上的经济发展水平、人口密度息息相关。Using the lightning data by ADTD from 2008 to 2011 and lightning disaster statistics from 1999 to 2008 in Hubei Province and selecting lightning strike density, strong lightning more than 50 k A, lightning disaster frequency, economic loss modulus and life vulnerability modulus as lightning disaster vulnerability risk evaluation indexes, vulnerability analysis indexes are calculated for various districts of the city. The parameter which is lightning disaster frequency must be modified. Only the parameters are placed in a horizontal line, the lightning vulnerability analysis will be scientifically. They are classified into five degrees and the degree values of vulnerability of lightning disasters for each are obtained. Then, it comes to the vulnerability zoning of the lightning disaster in Hubei. The results show that： The main features of the highrisk zones are higher lightning disaster, better economic development and densely populated; while the lowrisk areas are opposite. Lightning hazards is not only related to the geography, climatic environment, but also to the population density and economic development situation.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 易损性 评估指标 层次分析 权重分析 

分 类 号：P427[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]