安徽省农业灾害情况及防灾减灾对策分析  

Analysis of Agricultural Disasters and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Anhui Province

作　　者：陈娟[1] 陈磊[1] 吕凯[1] 朱淼[1] 任竹[1] 罗守进[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,合肥230031

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第8期212-217,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：安徽省农业灾害风险分析研究科技创新团队(14C1409);安徽省农业科学院院长青年创新基金(14B1460)

摘　　要：分析安徽省主要农业灾害发生及分布情况,探讨相应的防灾减灾对策,为实现安徽省农业可持续发展及保障安徽省粮食安全提供依据。以1978—2012年安徽省农业灾情及粮食播种面积、粮食总产等数据为依据,分析农业灾害对安徽省农业生产的影响和安徽省水灾、旱灾、风雹灾、霜冻灾等主要农业灾害发生及分布规律,并提出防灾减灾对策。结果表明,1978年以来,安徽省农业气象灾害频发,1991、1998、2003年受灾面积较大,总体上粮食总产呈增加趋势,农业气象灾害受灾及成灾面积与粮食总产呈负相关;1979—2012年安徽省粮食总产呈周期性波动,且与成灾面积的年际增长率呈负相关关系,表现为每3年左右为1个周期;影响安徽省农业生产发展的最主要灾害种类是旱灾、水灾、风雹、霜冻等,其中水灾和旱灾是最主要灾害,其危害多数年份占所有农业灾害危害受灾面积和成灾面积的80%以上;安徽省绝大部分地市的旱灾成灾面积指数大于水灾成灾面积指数,说明旱灾是影响安徽省农业生产发展的最重要农业气象灾害类型。该研究可为安徽省农业灾害风险的有效管理和政府部门相关决策提供技术支持和参考。This study aims to analyze the occurrence and distribution of major agricultural disasters in AnhuiProvince and explore corresponding countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation, thus providingreference for realizing sustainable agricultural development and ensuring food security in Anhui Province.Based on the data of agricultural disasters, grain-planting area and total grain output in Anhui Province during1978-2012, the impacts of agricultural disasters on agricultural production and the occurrence and distributionpatterns of major agricultural disasters, such as flood, drought, wind hail and frost in Anhui Province wereanalyzed. Moreover, corresponding countermeasures for disaster prevention and mitigation were proposed. Theresults showed that, since 1978, agro- meteorological disasters occurred frequently in Anhui Province. Theaffected area was particularly large in 1991, 1998 and 2003. Overall, total grain yield in Anhui Provinceexhibited an upward trend; area covered and affected by agro-meteorological disaster was negatively correlatedwith total grain yield. In 1979-2012, total grain yield in Anhui Province exhibited a cyclical fluctuation andwas negatively correlated with annual growth rate of affected area, with every three years as one cycle. Drought,flood, hail and frost were the major disasters affecting agricultural production and development in AnhuiProvince. Specifically, flood and drought were the most major disasters, causing over 80% of area covered andaffected by agro- meteorological disasters in those years with severe hazards. The drought disaster- coveredarea index was greater than flood disaster-covered area index in most cities of Anhui Province, indicating thatdrought was the most important agro-meteorological disaster affecting agricultural production and developmentin Anhui Province. This study provided technical basis and reference for effective management of agriculturaldisaster risks and development of relevant strategies in Anhui Province.

关 键 词：安徽省 农业灾害 防灾减灾 对策分析 

分 类 号：S421[农业科学—植物保护]