我国省域“两化”融合及其与农业现代化·城镇化关系的空间计量研究  

Spatial Econometric Research of China's Provincial Integration of Informatization and Industrialization and Its Relationship with Agricultural Modernization and Urbanization

作　　者：顾先问[1] 张爱萍[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学数学学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第11期328-332,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：根据2010-2012年我国大陆31个省（市、自治区）数据对省域信息化与工业化＂两化＂融合发展水平进行空间计量分析。探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）表明省域＂两化＂融合水平显著空间正相关,且地域分异明显,高水平聚集区主要分布在我国东部,低水平聚集区主要分布在我国中、西部,一部分省份随时间在高、低水平间发生着跃迁。在＂四化＂同步背景下,利用空间计量模型对农业现代化、城镇化对＂两化＂融合的促进作用展开分析。回归结果表明,全国范围＂两化＂融合水平具有显著的正向空间滞后效应,农业现代化、城镇化对＂两化＂融合有显著的正向促进作用;东、中、西部的分析表明,东部＂两化＂融合的正向空间滞后效应显著,中、西部则不明显;东、西部城镇化有显著的正向促进作用,农业现代化则不明显,中部与此情况相反。According to data of 31 provinces（cities, autonomous regions） in China during 2010 -2012, China＇ s provincial level of integration of informatization and industrialization was analyzed by spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. The exploratory spatial data analysis indicates that provincial level of integration has a significant positive spatial correlation. The regional difference is very obvious. High level aggregation areas are mainly located in the eastern China and low levels are mainly located in the middle and western China. Some provinces transit between high and low level over time. In the ＂four modernizations synchronization＂ background, the paper analyzes the promotion of agricultural modernization and urbanization to the integration of informatization and industrialization by spatial econometric models. The regression result shows that provincial level of integration has a significant positive spatial lag effect and agricultural modernization and urbanization has a significant promotion effect. The comparison analysis of eastern, middle and western China indicates that integration level of eastern China has a significant positive spatial lag effect, but that of middle and western China doesn＇t have. In eastern and western China, urbanization has a significant promotion effect and agricultural modernization doesn＇t have. In middle China, the situation is opposite.

关 键 词：信息化与工业化融合 ESDA 空间计量模型 农业现代化 城镇化 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]