带状疱疹后遗神经痛高危因素分析及其预报模型的建立  

Analysis of high risk factors and establishment of the prediction model of postherpetic neuralgia

作　　者：卢忠明[1] 程浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]嵊州市人民医院皮肤科,浙江嵊州312400 [2]浙江大学医学院附属邵逸夫医院皮肤科,浙江杭州310016

出　　处：《临床皮肤科杂志》2015年第4期207-209,共3页Journal of Clinical Dermatology

摘　　要：目的:分析与带状疱疹后遗神经痛(postherpetic neuralgia,PHN)发生相关的高危因素,并建立其是否发生的预报模型。方法:共收集220例带状疱疹患者的临床资料,包括患者发病年龄、自觉症状、皮损形态、基础疾病、既往用药、治疗开始时间、使用药物及是否发生PHN等统计数据,进行Logistic回归分析。结果:4种相关因素可影响PHN的发生,包括发病年龄、自觉症状、基础疾病及治疗方法。其中治疗方法与PHN的发生呈负相关,其余因素均与PHN的发生呈正相关。得出PHN是否发生的概率P=1/(1+e )8.645-0.103X1-1.523X2-2.051X4+1.573X7结论:从统计学角度证实了4个与PHN发生相关的高危因素,得出了其是否发生的预报模型公式。Objective： To analyse the postherpetic neuralgia（PHN） related high risk factors and establish a prediction model of PHN. Methods： Clinical data of 220 patients with herpes zoster were collected for logistic regression analysis, including the age of onset, subjective symptoms, the morphology of skin lesion, underlying diseases, drugs used, starting time of treatment, the relationship of drug used and the occurrence of PHN. Results： Four risk factors influenced the occurrence of PHN,of which drug therapy had a negative correlation, while the other three（onset of age, subjective symptoms and underlying diseases） had a positive correlation with the occurrence of PHN. The occurrence rate of PHN can be estimated by the formula：P=1/（1＋e）8.645-0.103X1-1.523X2-2.051X4＋1.573X7. Conclusion： Four risk factors are verified from the perspective of statistics, and a prediction model about the occurrence of PHN is established.

关 键 词：带状疱疹 后遗神经痛 高危因素 预报模型 

分 类 号：R752.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]