用幂率指数产量递减方程预测非常规气藏可采储量  

Prediction of Recoverable Reserves in Unconventional Gas Reservoirs by the Power-Law Loss Ratio Rate Decline Relation

作　　者：曹安[1] 曹国娟 张旭[2] 宋静波[1] 王涛[1] 杨新影[1] 王勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中石油塔里木油田分公司勘探开发研究院,新疆库尔勒841000 [2]中石油塔里木油田分公司天然气事业部,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《辽宁化工》2015年第3期315-317,共3页Liaoning Chemical Industry

摘　　要：当用Arps产量递减方程来评价非常规气藏时,其递减特征用Arps递减指数b表示。Arps方程中指数b的定义域为0到1.0之间。然而,实际中,非常规气藏生产数据常表现出较长的非稳态期,且递减指数b的值会远大于1.0(特别是在非稳态渗流期)。而在早期的不稳态渗流时期,很难得到准确的b值——如果b值算不准将会对气藏评价造成巨大的影响。由致密气藏实例计算知,应用双曲递减模型仅能拟合部分生产历史而且预测的可采储量过高。这说明,使用双曲递减模型对致密气藏进行可采储量评价显然不太可靠。本文对Arps双曲递减关系式进行了发展并推导出一种新的"幂率指数递减率"产量递减关系式,这种模型比之双曲递减模型更具一般性,对页岩气、致密气藏生产数据拟合效果更好。When estimating unconventional reservoirs by Arps rate decline relation, the decline behavior is typically defined in terms of the Arps decline exponent, b. The original Arps paper indicated that the b-exponent should lie between 0 and 1.0. However, production data from unconventional reservoirs exhibit extensive periods of transient flow behavior, in practice we often observe values much greater than 1.0（especially prior to the onset of true boundary-dominated flow）. Unfortunately, the correct b-exponent is difficult to identify during the early decline period, and the selection of the wrong b-exponent will have a tremendous impact on reserve estimates. Cases of tight gas reservoirs indicate that only portions of the production history are matched by the hyperbolic rate decline relation and predicted recoverable reserves may higher than the actual situation—suggesting that using the hyperbolic relation may not be reliable for tight gas reserves. In this paper, a new ＂power law loss-ratio＂ rate relation was developed. This new model tends to match production rate functions much better than the hyperbolic rate decline relation for tight gas and shale gas.

关 键 词：非常规气藏 产量递减 可采储量评价 产量预测 

分 类 号：TE122[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]