汇率制度弹性与货币政策独立性——来自77个国家和地区的经验证据  

Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Independence——Empirical Evidence from 77 Countries and Regions

作　　者：金雯雯[1] 郭永济[1] 李伯钧[1] 李鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《财经论丛》2014年第9期31-37,共7页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金年度资助项目(14BJL120);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(12YJAZH106);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点资助项目(13A790398);浙江省哲学社会科学规划资助项目(12YD46YB)

摘　　要：基于77个国家和地区2000年至2010年间的面板数据,利用GMM方法研究汇率制度弹性变化对货币政策独立性的影响。结果显示,在控制了通货膨胀、经济增长、贸易开放度等因素后,汇率制度弹性与货币政策独立性之间显著正相关;资本管制导致这一关系在新兴和其他经济体中被弱化;金融发展水平的阶段性差异导致金融发展对发达经济体的货币政策独立性具有显著的增强效应,而对新兴与其他经济体的货币政策独立性具有显著的削弱效应;总体上,各国货币政策独立性在美联储升息期要高于美联储降息期。Using panel data of 77 countries and regions from 2000 to 2010,this paper studies the impact of exchange rate regime on monetary independence with the GMM model. The results show that the exchange rate regime had significantly positive relationship with monetary independence after controlling the effects of inflation,economic growth and trade openness;capital control weakened this relationship in emerging and other economies; the phase difference of financial development strengthened the impact of financial development on monetary independence in industrial countries whereas it weakened that impact in emerging and other economies; and in general,monetary independence in the rising cycle of U. S. federal rate was weaker than that in the declining cycle of U. S. federal rate.

关 键 词：汇率制度弹性 货币政策独立性 金融自由化 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学]