洪山泉域水均衡分析及泉流量预测  

Analysis of Water Balance and Discharge Forecasting in Hongshan Spring Area

作　　者：雷俊琴[1] 郑秀清[1] 臧红飞[1] 秦作栋[2] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024 [2]山西大学黄土高原研究所,山西太原030006

出　　处：《人民黄河》2014年第9期41-43,47,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：山西省自然科学基金资助项目(2012011033-2);国家国际科技合作专项资助项目(2012DFA20770)

摘　　要：基于洪山泉流量日益衰减的现状,以该泉域2001—2013年的泉流量、开采量等系列资料为基础,分析了泉域水均衡状况,得出其流量衰减的主要原因为不断增加的岩溶水开采和煤矿矿井排水。利用灰色综合关联度方法,对不同时滞影响下的降水量与还原泉流量进行灰色关联分析,确定降水量对还原泉流量影响的滞后时间为8 a。将多元回归模型计算的有效降水量作为还原泉流量的相关序列,建立了灰色GM(1,2)预测模型,并进行了残差修正。利用修正后的模型,对2014—2017年不同降水保证率下的还原泉流量进行了预测。结果表明:2015年当降水保证率为95%时,洪山泉将发生断流。Based on the current situation of increasing attenuation of Hongshan spring discharge,the water balance model was established with the data series of spring discharge and exploitation in Hongshan spring area from 2001 to 2013. The ever-increasing of karst water exploitation and coal mine drainage were the main reasons of the attenuation of spring discharge. Using the method of comprehensive correlative degree of gray,the gray correlation analysis of restoring discharge and rainfall with different time-lag was proceeded to define that the hysteresis period of rainfall on spring discharge was 8 years. The effective rainfall,calculated by the multiple regression model,was the correlation sequences of restoring discharge. And then,the GM (1,2)prediction model was established to predict with the residual correction. Using the period residual modification of GM (1,2) model,the restore spring discharge was predicted with the different guaranteed rate of rainfall from 2014 to 2017. The results show that Hongshan spring will dry up in 2015 with rainfall guaranteed rate of 95%. The research provides a scientific reference for the effective protection of the Hongs-han spring and the reasonable development of karst water resources.

关 键 词：水均衡分析 还原泉流量 灰色综合关联度 GM(1 2)模型 洪山泉域 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]