中国农业碳排放的空间效应研究  

The spatial effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China-Based on Spatial Durbin Model

作　　者：李秋萍[1] 李长建[2] 肖小勇[1] 武红[3] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学文法学院,武汉430070 [3]国务院发展研究中心,北京100010

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第4期30-35,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"新型城镇化进程中农民土地权益保障研究"(编号:14JZD014);国家自然科学基金项目"我国‘三农’重要财政;金融和组织扶持政策落实情况;执行机制及提升对策研究"(编号:71341016);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(编号:2013YB16);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(编号:2013RW033)资助

摘　　要：农业碳排放是我国温室气体排放的重要组成部分。已有文献在探讨我国农业碳排放时大多忽略区域之间的空间效应,从而导致研究结论缺乏说服力。文中运用空间杜宾模型,采用1993-2010年省际农业碳排放数据对我国农业碳排放的空间效应进行了研究。研究结论如下:我国各省农业碳排放存在显著的空间效应,表现在农业碳排放存在空间集聚性、空间正相关性、空间异质性和空间溢出效应;农业经济增长导致农业碳排放量增加,农业科技投入和农民文化素质则具有减排效应,而且这三个影响因素对邻近地区农业碳排放的作用大于本地区。Agricultural carbon emission was an important part of greenhouse gases in China. The existing litera- tures which analyzed agricultural carbon emission mostly ignored the spatial effects among regions, leading to bi- ased conclusions. This study calculated the agricultural carbon emissions in China during 1993 -2010 with Spa- tial Durbin Model （SDM）. The conclusions are as follows ： （ 1 ） there were significant spatial effects of agricul- tural carbon emissions among provinces. The spatial effects of agricultural carbon emissions were represented in following four aspects： spatial agglomeration, spatial correlations of agricultural carbon emissions between re- gimes, spatial heterogeneities of agricultural carbon emissions among provinces, and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in China. （2） While the growth of agricultural economic increased the emissions of agricultural carbon, the investment in science and technology and the education of farmers reduced the emissions of agricultural carbon. Specially, three independent variables discussed above had more effects in adjacent prov- inces than local.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 空间效应 MORAN指数 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]