基于最优经济增长的中国各省区碳排放权盈亏分析  

Surplus and deficiency analysis on carbon emission rights under the optimal economic growth path for 30 provinces of China

作　　者：邓吉祥[1] 刘晓[2] 王铮[3] 

机构地区：[1]中共湖南省委党校湖南行政学院,长沙410006 [2]湖南省社会科学院,长沙410003 [3]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第4期36-40,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重大研究计划(973)项目(2012CB955800);国家社会科学基金项目(14CJY032);湖南省社会科学院青年科研基金项目(2013Qnkt 12)资助

摘　　要：在"共同但有区别的责任"原则下,综合考虑人均累计碳排放相等和差别原则,将中国碳排放划分为历史(1995-2010年)和未来(2011-2050年)两个时期,设计并分析中国各省区的减排框架。结果表明:1)历史时期,中国各省碳排放权呈北亏损,南盈余的基本分布格局;2)未来时期,中国各省碳排放权的分布格局变化不大,但亏损和盈余中心的亏损或盈余比重上升;3)两时期内,东部地区盈余比重显著上升,中部地区亏损比重显著上升;西部地区盈余比重显著下降。According to the equal emissions principle per capita and regional difference principle, the pathway of China＇s carbon emission was divided into the historical period （1995 -2010） and the future period （2011 - 2050）. And an allocation scheme of carbon emission right based on the China＇s 30 provinces was built. Accord- ing to the analysis of this scheme, some results was found ： 1 ） In the period of history,the carbon emission right in China showed a basic distribution pattern that North areal carbon emission fight was minus and south areal carbon emission right was plus. 2） In the future, the distribution pattern of carbon emission fights will change lit- de, but the proportion of earing or deficit in the losses and surplus center will raise a lot. 3 ） ods, the Eastern Chinag earing proportion raise During the two peri- significantly, the central China＇s deficit proportion raise cantly; Western China~ earing proportion decline significantly signifi

关 键 词：最优经济增长 碳排放权 公平与效率 分配方案 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]