晋陕峡谷区气候变化与旱涝灾害响应研究  

Responses of drought-flood disasters to climatic change in Shanxi-Shaanxi gorge in recent 52a

作　　者：曹永旺[1] 延军平[1] 李敏敏[1] 丁彩霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第4期113-118,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171090)资助

摘　　要：依据晋陕峡谷区15个气象站点1961-2012年的气温和降水资料,应用趋势分析法、Mann-kendall检验、Z指数法等对该地气候变化和旱涝趋势进行分析。结果表明:1)近52a来,晋陕峡谷区气候暖干化趋势明显,年平均气温呈波动上升趋向(0.278℃/10a),气温空间分布差异明显。2)降水呈现波动递减趋势(12.54mm/10a),降水空间分布呈纬向变化规律。3)气温突变后,涝灾比重迅速下降,"正常"年份和旱灾的比重均有所增加。According to the temperature and precipitation data in 1961 -2012 from 15 meteorological stations in Shanxi- Shaanxi gorge, we applied the trend analysis, Mann- kendall mutation test, and Z index methods to analyze the climatic change and drought - flood disasters in recent 52a. The results show ： （ 1 ） in recent 52a, Shanxi -Shaanxi gorge had experienced an apparent trend to climate wa1~ning and drying, and the mean annual temperatures were also witnessed a fluctuated upward trend with growth rate of 0. 278~C/10a. Spatial differences were significant in the field of temperature. （2） Precipitation was witnessed a fluctuated decreasing trend with the rate of 12.54mm/10a. Besides, it had also appeared roughly zonal disciplinarian in precipitation spatial dis- tribution. （3）After the temperature mutation, the scale of flood disaster decreased, while the scale of ＂normal＂ year and drought disaster increased at the same time.

关 键 词：气候变化 旱涝 Z指数 晋陕峡谷区 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]