近36年河南农作物干旱灾情时空规律研究  

Spatial-temporal characteristics of crop drought in Henan for recent 36 years

作　　者：李治国[1,2] 郭志富[1] 张延伟[1] 李琳[1] 李红忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院环境与规划学院,商丘476000 [2]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2015年第4期119-124,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：河南省科技厅重点科技攻关项目(142102310299;132102310357);商丘师范学院青年骨干教师项目(2013GGJS08)资助

摘　　要：利用近36年河南省旱灾统计资料,基于Hurst指数、小波分析、专业化指数和空间自相关对河南省农作物干旱灾情的时空演化规律进行了研究。结果表明:(1)近36年河南农作物受灾、成灾和绝收面积时间序列的Hurst指数分别为0.9167、0.8441、0.8011,过程均具有很强的正持续性;(2)河南农作物受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积均存在多时间尺度特征,大周期变化嵌套小周期变化;(3)河南的旱灾受灾面积和成灾面积在空间分布上均表现出明显的集聚性,主要位于河南的南部和东南部的地市,全省旱灾防控可向这些地区倾斜;(4)河南西北部地市的农业气象灾害中以旱灾为主,防控政策应向旱灾倾斜。In this paper, the drought statistics of Henan Province during 1978 -2013 were studied based on Hurst exponent, wavelet analysis tool, spatial autocorrelation and specialization index for revealing the spatial - temporal characteristics of Henan Province. It reached the following results. （ 1 ） In the past 36 years, the Hurst index of crops drought - induced, drought - affected and no harvest areas in Henan Province were 0.9167, 0. 8441, 0. 8011, which showed strong positive persistence. （2） The drought - induced, drought - affected and no harvest areas had multiple time scale features, large cycle nesting with small cycle. （3） The center of drought - induced, drought - affected area were located in the east - southern Henan Province from 1988 to 2004, and the spatial distribution of drought showed significant concentration distribution, the drought -hit areas were mainly located in the southern and southeastern Henan Province. Hence, the disaster prevention and mitigation policies of Henan Province should tilt to these cities. （4） The high location quotient value mainly in the northwestern cit- ies of Henan Province, which indicated that drought were the primary agro - meteorological disasters in these cit- ies. Hence, the disaster prevention and mitigation policies should tilt to drought in these cities.

关 键 词：干旱灾害 空间自相关 河南省 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]