灰色GM(1,1)模型在国际春夏女装流行色色相预测中的应用  

Hue prediction on Intercolor for women's spring/summer using GM(1,1) models

作　　者：常丽霞[1,2] 高卫东[2] 潘如如[2] 刘建立[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南科技学院服装学院,河南新乡453003 [2]生态纺织教育重点实验室(江南大学),江苏无锡214122

出　　处：《纺织学报》2015年第4期128-133,共6页Journal of Textile Research

基　　金：国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201310467016)

摘　　要：服装流行色是影响服装企业生产、营销、效益的重要因素。针对服装流行色预测研究中存在色彩量化复杂、缺少时间序列参数与构建预测模型性能关系等问题,提出以国际春夏女装流行色为研究对象,以PANTONE色彩体系为色彩量化依据,以绝对误差平均值作为预测效果的综合评价指标,探讨了不同长度的时间序列对灰色GM(1,1)服装流行色色相预测模型性能的影响。研究结果表明,以6年时间序列建立的灰色GM(1,1)模型对服装流行色色相预测的整体精度高,其绝对误差平均值之和仅为1.9%。Fashion color plays significant role in manufacture, marketing and profit for garment industries. Aiming at the problems existing in fashion color prediction studies on complicated color quantification,absence of time series parameters and establishment of prediction model performance relationship,influence of time series of different lengths on the performance of GM（ 1,1） fashion color hue prediction model was discussed,using Intercolor for womens＇ s spring / summer as the subject,the PANTONE color system as the basis of the color quantification and mean absolute errors as the comprehensive evaluation index of the prediction effect. The result show that the grey GM（ 1,1） model established with 6-year time series has high overall precision on the prediction of fashion color hue,with the sum of mean absolute errors only of 1. 9%.

关 键 词：服装流行色 色相预测 灰色系统理论 时间序列 平均绝对误差 

分 类 号：TS941.7[轻工技术与工程—服装设计与工程]