逐日降水量模拟在甘蔗气候风险分析中的应用  

Application of daily precipitation simulation in the climatic risk analysis of sugarcane

作　　者：刘武 莫家尧 莫钧 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区来宾市气象局,广西来宾546100

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2015年第2期272-277,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：2013年广西自治区自然科学基金项目(2013GXNSFAA019288);2012年广西自治区自然科学基金项目(2012GXNSFBA053133)

摘　　要：利用随机天气发生器（WeaGETS）模拟来宾市200年的逐日降水序列，将模拟结果与50年的实测资料对比，利用模拟序列分析降水对来宾甘蔗生产的影响。结果表明：模拟年均降水总量相对误差在0．7％～13．5％之间；模拟月降水量与实际相关性明显；日最大降水量及其变化趋势可信；模拟的各量级降水日数与实测相差0．2～14．3 d ；中雨以下比大雨以上的逐日降水机率的模拟效果好。总之，模拟降水与实测相近，可以用于气候统计分析。80％保证率下的甘蔗苗期、分蘖期、伸长期和成熟期降水量分别只占需水量的51．0％、52．7％、72．8％和38．5％。各生育期无旱机率21．0％～40．0％，轻旱机率9．5％～29．5％，中旱机率10．5％～26．5％，重旱机率7．5％～22．5％，特旱机率 6．0％～29．5％。来宾甘蔗干旱机率较大，最主要为春、秋旱，主要影响生育期为苗期、分蘖期和成熟期。Using the random weather generator （WeaGETS） to simulate the daily precipitation sequences in the past 200 years in Laibin ,the simulated results compared with the measured data in last 50 years .Application of the simulated sequence analyzed the effect of precipitation to the sugarcane production in Laibin .The results showed that ：The relative error of the simulated annual average precipitation was between 0 .7% 13 .5% .The simulated monthly rainfall was obvi-ous correlation with the actuality .The daily maximal precipitation and its change trend were trust .The difference between simulated each level rainy days with the real measured ones was 0 .2 ~ 14 .3 days .The simulated effect of daily precipita-tion probability for below moderate rain was better than the above heavy rain .In short ,the simulated precipitation was close to the measured one .So it can be used in the climatic statistical analysis .Under the assurance ratio 80% ,the rainfall in each stage of seeding ,tillering ,jointing and maturation of sugarcane was accounted 51 .0% ,52 .7% ,72 .8%and 38 .5% of the stage crop water requirements ,respectively .In each growth stage ,the no drought probability was 21 .0% ~ 40 .0% ,the light drought probability was 9 .5% ~ 29 .5% ,the moderate drought probability was 10 .5% ~26 .5% ,the severe drought probability was 7 .5% ~ 22 .5% and the super drought probability was 6 .0% ~ 29 .5% .So in Laibin the drought probability was comparatively large .The most important drought was in Spring and Autumn and ma-jor impacted the growth stages of seedling ,tillering and maturity .

关 键 词：天气发生器 降水 模拟降水 甘蔗 干旱风险 气候分析 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]