人口老龄化趋势下城镇职工医疗保险基金评估研究  

Actuarial Assessment of Urban Basic Medical Insurance Fund under Population Aging Environment

作　　者：董现垒[1] 李炳富 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]中银保险有限公司产品精算部,北京100815

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第2期19-24,共6页Journal of Beijing University of Technology (Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(71261026)

摘　　要：基于计量学和精算学建立了我国城镇职工医疗保险基金的收支平衡精算模型,结合我国未来人口结构,特别是我国人口老龄化的数据以及未来我国参保人员的平均工资水平,预测了我国医疗保险基金统筹账户在未来近30年的收支平衡状况。结果表明:在当前的基本医疗保险政策下,统筹账户基金的收入和支出在长期不具有可持续性,医保基金收支缺口巨大。如果从缴费费率进行调整,为了保持统筹基金账户收支平衡,个人和单位所需缴纳的费率将不断提高,个人和用人单位需要缴纳的费率将分别从2012年的2.09%和6.28%提高到2040年的8.93%和26.8%。我国人口老龄化的控制以及在老龄化情形下医保基金的改革与运作对我国经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。A health insurance actuarial model is built to analyze the urban basic medical insurance fund in China.Based on Chinese population structure data,especially Chinese population aging data,this paper forecasts the balance situation of Chinese urban basic medical insurance fund in the next 3 decades.It can be clearly seen that,under the current policies,our urban basic medical insurance pooling account would not make both ends meet in the long run.From an analysis of current contribution rate,in order to make ends meet,both individual and enterprise contribution rates should increase to a relative high level,8.93%and 26.8%in 2040 respectively.The conclusions indicate that it is high time that a more efficient strategy be proposed to improve the fund＇s balance under the problem of population aging.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 精算模型 收支平衡 缺口 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济] F201