Rogerson空间模式监测在登革热疫情早期预警中的应用价值  

Evaluation of the Rogerson space pattern monitoring method for the early warning detection of dengue fever

作　　者：夏尧[1] 景钦隆[2] 刘康康[1] 陆家海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院 热带病防治研究教育部重点实验室 广东省重大传染病预防和控制技术研究中心,广东广州510080 [2]广州市疾病预防控制中心,广东广州510440

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2015年第2期133-136,155,共5页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81373050)

摘　　要：目的探讨Rogerson空间模式监测方法在登革热病例聚集早期预警中的应用价值。方法利用Rogerson空间模式监测方法对广东省2005-2011年登革热疫情数据进行回顾性分析,得出最佳监测参数组合。用该组合分析登革热高发年份2006年和低发年份2009年,比较预警结果与实际发病的拟合情况。本研究同时采用Kulldorff时空扫描统计量方法分析上述数据,比较两种方法的优劣。结果 Rogerson空间模式监测方法可早期及时发现登革热病例聚集,在登革热早期预警中具有一定应用价值。与Kulldorff时空扫描统计量方法相比,Rogerson空间模式监测可更精确地探测登革热病例聚集,提供更为详细的预警时间,并可提供所有监测区域的聚集信息,但聚集区域判断方面较为繁琐,不够直观。Kullforff则可直接报告聚集区域,但其所提供的聚集时间不如前者精确详细,且不能报告所有监测地区的聚集情况。结论两种方法各有优缺点,应结合使用,发挥最大功效。Objective To investigate the value of the Rogerson space pattern monitoring method in the application of early warning detection of dengue fever cases. Methods Data collected from outbreaks of dengue virus occurring in Guangdong Province between 2005 and 2011 was retrospectively analyzed using the Rogerson space pattern monitoring method after generating an optimal combination of monitoring parameters. These parameter combinations were used toidentify cases from both the highest incidence year of dengue fever recorded in 2006 and the lowest incidence year of dengue fever in 2009.Resuhs were then compared with the Kulldorff space-time scan statistic method and outcomes of each were discussed in terms of their advantages and disadvantages. Results The result indicated that the Rogerson space pattern monitoring method, as used with this data, is capable of detecting early clusters of dengue fever cases. Compared with theKulldorff space-time scan statistic method, theRogerson method seems to be more accurately identify outbreak time and total number of outbreaks. The Kulldorff method provided more detailed information for an individual cluster directly, but did not offer the same detailed outbreak time and situation of all of the outbreaks as the Rogerson method. Conclusion Given the advantages and disadvantages of each method,it seems practical to utilize both in combination in order to obtain the most effective early warning data possible.

关 键 词：Rogerson空间模式监测 登革热 Kulldorff时空扫描统计量 早期预警 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]