台湾番石榴在福建引种的寒冻害风险分析与区划  

Risk evaluation and regionalization of cold and freezing damage on guava introduction in Fujian Province

作　　者：陈家金 王加义 黄川容 林其铭 吴婷婕 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象服务中心,福州350001 [2]连江县气象局,福建连江350500

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2015年第4期967-973,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CAMGJ2012M27);福建省自然科学基金项目(2012J01160);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406027)资助

摘　　要：基于灾害风险系统分析理论和灾害风险指数法,利用福建番石榴引种区历年气象资料、种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,分析了寒冻害对福建省番石榴影响致灾因子危险性、承险体脆弱性和防寒防冻能力;应用加权综合法得到不同单元的综合风险指数,并应用GIS技术对福建省番石榴引种区的寒冻害风险进行区划。结果表明:致灾因子危险性的高值区分布在龙岩市、漳州和泉州两市的西部山区、莆田市西北部、福州市西部和宁德市大部;番石榴脆弱性高值区分布在平和县;防寒防冻能力的低值区主要分布在东部的部分县市。考虑各因子的综合风险度,寒冻害对福建省番石榴引种的风险可分为轻度、中度、重度和严重4个风险等级,其中重度以上的风险主要分布在龙岩市、漳州市西部山区、泉州和莆田两市的高海拔山区、福州市内陆山区和宁德市大部。Based on the disaster risk system analysis theory and disaster risk index method, the cold and freezing hazard, the vulnerability of risk-beating object, and the prevention capacity for cold and freezing damage of guava were analyzed by using the yearly meteorological data, planting areas, yield, and socio-economic data in Fujian Province. The comprehensive risk evaluation index was calculated by using comprehensive weighted method, and the regionalization of cold and freezing damage was done in guava introduction regions by GIS. The results show that the regions of high hazard value of cold and freezing damage are distributed in Longyan City, the mountainous areas of western Zhangzhou and Quanzhou cities, northwestern Putian City, western Fuzhou City and the most areas of Ningde City. High vulnerability value of guava is distributed in Pinghe County. Low prevention capacity value of cold and freezing damage is distributed in some counties of eastern Fujian Province. The cold and freezing damage risk of guava introduction can be divided into four levels （mild, moderate, severe and violent） in Fujian Province by considering the comprehensive risk degree. The severe and violent risk regions are distributed in Longyan City, the mountainous areas of western Zhangzhou City, high elevation areas of Quanzhou and Putian cities, the inland mountainous areas of Fuzhou City, and the most areas of Ningde City.

关 键 词：寒冻害 番石榴 风险指数 风险分析 风险区划 

分 类 号：S667.9[农业科学—果树学] S426[农业科学—园艺学]