基于GIS的LLCHEN-A分布式水文模型参数及不确定性分析  

Parameters and their uncertainty analysis of GIS-based LLCHEN-A distributed hydrological model

作　　者：陈攀[1] 李兰[1,2] 周瑾慧[1] 孟洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2015年第2期171-175,共5页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(编号:201201066)

摘　　要：以杭州瓶窑以上东苕溪流域为例,介绍了LLCHEN-A分布式水文模型参数的物理意义及确定方法.同时采用普适似然不确定估计(GLUE)方法,对模型参数的不确定性问题进行研究和分析.模型参数被分为不敏感参数和敏感参数,其中敏感参数又分为综合敏感参数、气象因子敏感参数及区域敏感参数.通过考虑模型参数与气象条件以及下垫面特征的匹配性,可以有效降低模型参数的不确定性,这将为今后流域水文模拟提供参考.Physical meanings and determination methods of the model parameters of LLCHEN-A distribu- ted hydrological model supported by geographic information system （GIS） technology are demonstrated with an application example in the upstream part of Dongtiaoxi river basin re ative to Pingyao station. The uncertainty of model parameters is analyzed by using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation （GLUE） method. The parameters can be classified into two groups： sensitive parameters and non-sensitive parameters. The former includes comprehensive sensitive parameters, meteorological sensitive parameters and regional sensitive parameters. By considering the match between model parameters and meteorological conditions as well as underlying surface characteristics, uncertainty in these parameters is reduced, which will provide guidance for future hydrological simulaitons of river basin.

关 键 词：分布式水文模型 GLUE方法 水文不确定性分析 

分 类 号：P338.9[天文地球—水文科学]