统计降尺度方法对渭河流域气候要素的模拟及预估  

Simulation and prediction of climatic elements in Weihe River basin using statistical downscaling method

作　　者：雷江群 畅建霞[1] 涂欢[1] 黎云云 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院陕西省西北旱区生态水利工程重点实验室,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2015年第2期176-181,229,共7页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:51190093;51179148;51179149);陕西省重点科技创新团队(编号:2012KCT-10);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(编号:NCET-10-0933);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基地项目(编号:2012490511)

摘　　要：利用渭河流域21个气象站点1960-2010年的逐月降水、气温、潜在蒸散和NCEP再分析资料,采用逐步回归的统计降尺度方法,建立了月序列的统计降尺度模型,并将模型应用于CMIP5中CanESM2模式下RCP4.5情景,产生了未来气候要素的变化情景,主要结论如下:1)该法对潜在蒸散的模拟效果最好,气温次之,降水最差.2)对未来气候要素的预估从时间变化上看,各时期月降水相对于基准期而言稍有减少,气温相差不大,潜在蒸散稍有增大.3)从空间变化上看,未来多年平均降水和潜在蒸散分布呈现出由东南向西北逐渐减少的趋势,而气温分布呈现出由南向北逐渐降低的趋势.The statistical downscaling model based on monthly data series has been established using the monthly precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration data at 21 meteorological stations in Weihe River basin and NCEP reanalysis data from 1960 to 2010; moreover the model is applied in CanESM2 mode and RCP4.5 scenario of CMIP5; so the future change of climatic elements is formed. The main results are as follows. （1）The potential evapotranspiration is simulated best by statistical downscal- ing, followed by the temperature, and the precipitation is worst. （2）From the perspective of temporal varia- tion,the prediction of future climatic elements change is analysed and compared with the baseline period; the monthly precipitation reduces slightly in the future; the temperature differs littlel; and the potential e- vapotranspiration increases a bit. （3）From the perspective of spatial variation, the future annual average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration shows a gradual decreasing trend from southeast to north west; and the temperature shows a gradual decreasing trend from south to north.

关 键 词：渭河流域 统计降尺度 逐步回归 气候要素 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]