我国煤炭产业生命周期阶段识别及其峰值  

Life Cycle Stage Identification and Peak Forecasting of China Coal Industry

作　　者：殷腾飞[1] 王立杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京),北京100083

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2015年第4期44-50,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(项目编号:2010YG02)

摘　　要：本文在产业生命周期理论的基础上,分析了4个典型国家煤炭产业的生命周期发展规律,并以此为支撑,运用皮尔生长曲线模型对我国煤炭产业生命周期进行拟合分析,得出4种峰值方案,以及相应的拐点时间和饱和时间,并解读了不同的方案的合理性。我国煤炭产业在经历了高速发展期之后,出现了一些新的产业特征,预判我国煤炭产业生命周期阶段及峰值对于我国煤炭产业的可持续发展具有重要意义。This paper analyzes development law of four typical national coal industry life cycle based on the industry life cycle theo-ry , and analyzes the life cycle of China coal industry by using of peal growth curve model , draw four peak scheme , and the time of inflex-ion and saturation with explanation on rationality of different scheme . The coal industry of China appeared some new characteristics after high-speed development , and it is great significance for the sustainable development of China coal industry to distinguish life cycle stage of China coal industry and the peak production .

关 键 词：产业生命周期 煤炭产业 生长曲线 峰值 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]