京津冀都市圈人口变动与城市化的空间发展态势——基于ROXY指数分析  

Space Development Trends of Changes in Population and Urbanization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Circle——Based on the ROXY Index Analysis

作　　者：鲁继通[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学,北京100070

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2015年第4期134-143,共10页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重大项目"京津冀区域协同发展研究--全面推进中的战略重点研究"(项目编号:14ZDA23);北京市哲学社会科学规划重点项目"首都经济圈的目标定位与战略重点研究"(项目编号:11JGA012);北京市哲学社会科学规划特别委托项目"北京城市功能疏解与首都圈城镇体系研究"(项目编号:13JDCSD003);北京市教委科研基地-科技创新平台-都市圈研究中心(2015)(项目编号:PXM2015_014205_000126);北京市经济社会发展政策研究基地及北京市CBD发展研究基地资助成果

摘　　要：本文以都市圈为空间地域单元,以全国人口普查数据为基础,综合运用多种计量方法系统分析京津冀都市圈人口变动与空间分布特征,并构建ROXY指数方法,探讨京津冀都市圈整体人口变动态势及核心城市北京、天津的城市化发展阶段及空间演化路径。研究表明,目前京津冀都市圈人口变动呈加速态势,城镇体系呈"双核"格局,各区域人口贡献度差异悬殊,人口空间分布不均等,人口城市化度稳步提升;京津冀都市圈总体上处于人口向空间分散的趋势变动,人口郊区化特征逐渐显现;北京和天津分别处于人口郊区化向逆城市化的过度阶段及人口城市化向郊区化的过渡阶段,都市圈的核心城市人口城市化演进更加迅速和成熟。This paper , based on the city circle for the space geographical unit , on the basis of the national population census data , using synthetically various measurement methods , systematically analyzes population changes and spatial distribution characteristics of Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle , and building the ROXY index method , discusses the whole population change trend of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle and urbanization development stage and space evolution path of Beijing and Tianjin . The research shows that at present , metropolitan area＇s population change in Beijing -Tianjin-HeBei presents accelerated trend , urban system is “dual -core” pattern , internal population contribution difference is huge , population spatial distribution inequality is different , population urban-ization degree is rising steadily;on the whole , Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolis circle is in the trend of population dispersal to space changes , emerging population suburbanization characteristics;Beijing and Tianjin are respectively is at the stage of population suburbaniza-tion to counter urbanization and population urbanization to population suburbanization .

关 键 词：京津冀 人口变动 城市化 发展态势 ROXY指数 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]