河流年径流量的R/S灰色预测  

R/S Grey Prediction of River Annual Runoff

作　　者：李宝玲[1] 李建林[1] 昝明军 李志强[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资源环境学院,河南焦作454003

出　　处：《水文》2015年第2期44-48,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然基金重点项目"黑河流域生态水文样带调查"(91025002)

摘　　要：径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此，将R／S分析与灰色系统理论相结合，提出了R／S＆色预测模型以预报河流年径流量。针对黑河正义峡水文站60a（1949～2011年）的年径流量资料，首先进行R／S分析．确定径流量序列的Hurst指数H和平均循环周期r；然后在一个周期内进行年径流量灰色预测。结果表明：R／S．＆色预测结果的精度明显高于直接进行灰色预测的精度。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围，为河流径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。River runoff series has the characteristics of fractal and gray. Therefore, by combining gray system themy with R/S analysis, R/S gray prediction model was proposed to forecast annual runoff. Based on the data of the annual runoff at the Zhengyixia Station of the Heihe River during the period 1949-2011, the runoff series were analyzed by R/S method. The Hurst exponent and average cycle of river runoff series were determined firstly; then, in one cycle, annual runoff was predicted by gray. The prediction results show that R/S gray prediction model has higher precision indeed. This method broadens the application range of fractal theory and grey model, and provides a new scientific approach for predicting annual runoff.

关 键 词：年径流量 R/S灰色预测 平均循环周期 黑河 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]