基于变动统计的复杂系统可靠性综合评估  

Synthetic reliability assessment for complex system based on dynamic population statistics

作　　者：张海瑞[1,2] 洪东跑[2] 赵宇[3] 李晶[2] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学航天科学与工程学院,湖南长沙410073 [2]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076 [3]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2015年第5期1213-1218,共6页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61104133)资助课题

摘　　要：为了在小样本条件下实现对复杂系统的可靠性评估,研究了复杂系统的环境、功能、状态及演化过程的随机特性,给出了一种基于变动统计的复杂系统可靠性综合评估方法。针对复杂系统的特点,根据变动统计理论,通过引入环境因子、继承因子和增长因子等方法,综合利用复杂系统在研制过程中的不同环境、阶段、层次和对象的试验数据,对复杂系统可靠性进行综合评估。以某战术武器系统为应用对象,结果表明该方法综合利用了武器系统在研制过程中的多种试验数据,扩大了样本量,有效地改善了多指标要求的战术武器系统可靠性评估精度。To improve the precision of reliability assessment for the complex system, the stochastic features on environment, function, status and evolvement of the complex system are studied, and a synthetic reliability assessment method for the complex system based on dynamic population statistics is proposed. According to the theory of dynamic population statistics, the environment factor, inheritance factor and growth factor are intro- duced. Then, with these factors, the test data from various environment conditions, various develop phases, various structures and various objects are used to assess the reliability of the complex system. With the method, the various test data are used synthetically to enlarge the sample size and increase the information for reliability assessment. Thus, the precision of reliability assessment is improved. The present method is used to assess the reliability of the tactical weapon system. The result shows that the method is reasonable, and it is convenient for engineering application.

关 键 词：变动统计 复杂系统 可靠性综合评估 试验数据 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]