徐州地区疟疾发病率的区间划分、预测及下降阶段推测模型  

INTERVAL DIVISION, FORECASTING AND DECLINE TENDENCY ESTIMATION MODEL OF MALARIA INCIDENCE IN XUZHOU CITY

作　　者：方莹[1] 邓达[1] 顾政诚[1] 姜本启 

机构地区：[1]中国预防医学科学院寄生虫病研究所世界卫生组织疟疾,血吸虫病及丝虫病合作中心 [2]江苏省徐州市卫生防疫站

出　　处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》1991年第4期284-286,共3页Chinese Journal of Parasitology and Parasitic Diseases

摘　　要：运用灰色模型对徐州地区1956—1986年的疟疾发病率进行了区间划分,并对1987年及1988年的疟疾发病率进行灰色GM(1,1)预测。预测精度分别为94.83％及82.44％。为对间日疟发病率下降规律进行探索,运用灰色Verhulst模型对疟疾发病率进行拟合,在此基础上提出了间日疟发病率下降的推测模型。This paper uses Grey Model to devide the malaria incidence of 1956-1986 into interval in Xuzhou City. The Grey forecasting GM(1,1) model is used to calculate the malaria incidence in 1987 and 1988. The accuracy of forecasting is 94.83% and 82.44% respectively. Furthermore, the Grey Verhulst model is used to fit the malaria incidence for the study of the declining tendency of vivax malaria incidence. Based on the fitting models, the decline tendency estimation models of vivax malaria are worked out.

关 键 词：疟疾 流行病学 区间划分 推测模型 

分 类 号：R531.301[医药卫生—内科学]