中国各省建筑业碳排放脱钩及影响因素研究  

Research on Carbon Decoupling Effect and Influence Factors of Provincial Construction Industry in China

作　　者：冯博[1] 王雪青[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第4期28-34,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"建筑市场执业资格人员信用行为及其治理模型研究"(编号:71172148);住房和城乡建设部基金项目"基于治理理论的注册建造师信用评价体系研究"(编号:2011-R3-18)

摘　　要：伴随着我国经济的快速发展,能源匮乏、气候变暖等问题日益突出。建筑业作为我国国民经济的支柱产业,面临碳排放较大和能耗较高等问题,是当前我国节能减排的重点领域之一。减少建筑业碳排放,对实现我国节能减排目标具有重大意义。本文按照IPCC碳排放核算方法,建立中国区域建筑业碳排放测算模型,基于30个省份2004-2011年的面板数据,测算了中国各省建筑业在此期间的碳排放量。在此基础上,利用Tapio脱钩模型分析了各省建筑业碳排放的脱钩状态,并运用LMDI方法对碳排放的影响因素进行分解分析。研究结果表明,我国各省建筑业碳排放量在整体上呈逐年上升的趋势,但省际间存在较大差异。各省间接碳排放量均占到总排放量的90%左右,是建筑业碳排放的主要来源。大部分省份处于碳排放的弱脱钩状态,其余省份处于扩张负脱钩状态和增长连接状态,尚未出现强脱钩的省份。建筑业能源碳排放强度效应、能源结构效应以及能源强度效应在样本期间内对碳排放产生负向影响,但影响效果较小,而间接碳排放强度效应和产业规模效应对碳排放产生正向影响,是碳排放的主要影响因素。本文建议,应通过加大绿色建筑材料的使用量、回收利用废旧建材、降低单位面积的建材消耗量、开发利用清洁能源、进一步优化能源结构等措施,来有效地降低建筑业的碳排放。相关部门可根据各省建筑业碳排放的差异性,有针对性地制定减排目标,出台差异化的建筑业发展政策。With the rapid development of economy in China,the problems such as lacking energy,climate warming are increasingly prominent. The construction industry is a pillar industry of our national economy. However,it was faced with many problems,like huge carbon emissions and high energy consumption. Besides,it is one of the key fields of energy saving and emission reduction in our country. Therefore,reducing the construction industry ＇s carbon emissions is of great significance to achieve the target of energy conservation and emission reduction in China. According to the IPCC carbon accounting methods,this paper constructs a regional construction carbon calculation model of China,based on which we calculate the carbon emissions of each province in construction industry with the panel data of 30 provinces between 2004- 2011. On the basis,the decoupling states of carbon emissions in province are analyzed with the Tapio decoupling model,then the influence factors of carbon emissions are discussed by using LMDI method.Results show that the carbon emissions of each province in the construction industry raise year by year,but there are big differences between the provinces. Indirect emissions account for about 90% of the total emissions,which is the main source of carbon emissions of each province in construction industry. Most provinces are in weak decoupling states,the rest of the provinces are in expansion negative decoupling state and connection state,while none of them in strong decoupling state. Energy carbon emission intensity effect,energy structure effect and energy intensity effect have a negative impact,while minor,on carbon emissions in the sample period.While indirect carbon intensity effect and industry scale effect have a positive impact on carbon emissions,and they are the main influence factors. The governments should take some effective measures to reduce the carbon emissions in construction industry effectively,such as using more green building materials,recycling the waste materials,reducing the buildin

关 键 词：建筑业 碳排放 脱钩效应 LMDI 影响因素 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]