经济增长视角下的政府债务适度规模研究——基于中国西部D省的县级面板数据分析  

A Study on Moderate Government Debt from the Perspective of Economic Growth:Based on the Analysis of the County-level Panel Data of One Chinese Western Province

作　　者：邱栎桦[1] 伏润民[2] 李帆[3] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院,650091 [2]云南财经大学公共政策研究中心,650221 [3]云南财经大学财政与经济学院,650221

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2015年第1期13-31,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大项目"公共财政安全监测预警机制研究"的资助(编号:12JZD031)

摘　　要：本文利用动态随机一般均衡模型和动态面板模型分析地方政府债务与经济增长的关系,并利用动态面板门槛模型探寻政府债务适度规模。数值模拟结果显示:短期内政府债务对经济增长起到促进作用,但长期内政府债务对经济增长无显著作用。实证结果表明:地方政府债务与经济增长存在明显的非线性关系,政府债务阈值为20%。当债务负担率低于阈值时,地方政府债务促进经济增长;反之,当债务负担率大于阈值时,地方政府债务与经济增长不存在显著关系。This Paper investigates the relationship between local government debts and the economic growth by employing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and dynamic panel threshold model. The results of numerical simulation show that the impact of government debt on economic growth is positive in the short term, but the impact is insignificant in the long run. An empirical analysis of the county-level panel data of one Chinese western province shows that there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between local government debts and the economic growth, with the debt threshold being 20%. When the government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than the threshold, the impact of local government debts on economic growth is positive; when the ratio is higher than the threshold, the impact is not significant.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 经济增长 动态随机一般均衡模型 动态面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]