人往“高处”走?——基于农民工两次务工地选择的实证分析  

Upgrading?—the Empirical Study for the Migrant Worker Working Place

作　　者：姚东旻[1] 李军林[2] 韦诗言 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心,100081 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,100872 [3]中央财经大学中国公共财政与政策研究院,100081

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2015年第1期102-118,共17页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：北京市社会科学界联合会青年社科人才项目资助(批准号:2014SKL018);国家自然科学基金主任项目(批准号:71350020)资助

摘　　要：农民工在年轻时和年长时所选择的务工地是否有所不同?是什么因素导致了这些选择差异?我们假设农民工在一生之中只进行两次务工地的选择,分别在年轻时和年老时,通过构建理论模型,我们采取条件逻辑回归(conditional logit)的实证策略,对影响农民工初次务工地和再次务工地的因素进行了实证检验,结果发现农民工在进行初次务工地选择时,收入是一个显著的影响因素,而对于再次务工地区选择,城镇化水平(体现为当地的公共福利和城镇化率)是一个显著的影响因素,而工资水平不再成为影响决策的显著因素。Are the choices of working place change when young migrant worker grown old？ What factor affect these choices？ This paper focusing on the question that where there is any difference in choosing working place for young migrant workers when they become old, and that what factors lead to these difference？ We assume that migrant workers face to working place choices. One is when they are young, the other is when they are old. We conduct the empirical study of what factor affect the first and second working place choices of migrant by building the conditional iogit regression model. We found that the wage is a significant factor that affect the initial working place choice, while the urbanization rate and the social welfare of the destination are the significant factors that affect the second working place choice.

关 键 词：农民务工地选择 城镇化率 收入因素 条件逻辑回归 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]