山洪预警WRF模式不同物理方案组合对比试验  

Comparative experiment on different combination of physics schemes of WRF model in mountain torrent early-warning

作　　者：陈超君[1,2] 李俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市水文水资源勘测局,重庆401147 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430205

出　　处：《人民长江》2015年第7期60-63,87,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41275107);水利部公益行业专项(201201063)

摘　　要：为了获得致灾山洪降水预报的最佳物理方案组合,基于WRF模式,采用不同物理方案组合对长江流域历史山洪过程,进行了对比试验和检验。采用TS评分法,评估了不同试验方案对各量级降水的预报能力,综合得出了最佳物理过程。结果表明:微物理参数化采用WSM6,对流参数化采用Kfeta模拟的雨带范围和降水强度与实况吻合的最好,预报效果最稳定。证明了物理模式的合理选择对山洪预报结果影响较大。To obtain the optimal combination of physical schemes for the forecast of mountain torrent disaster precipitation,on the basis of WRF model,the historic mountain flood process occurred in Yangtze River Basin was simulated by using different combinations of physical schemes,and the results were compared,analyzed and checked. The forecast ability for precipitation of all magnitudes using different combinations was evaluated by TS verification and an optimal physical process was obtained. It shows that the simulated rainfall gets the most close to observed data when the micro-physical parameter adopts WSM6 and the convection parameter adopts Kfeta,so this scheme is the most stable. It demonstrates that the reasonable selection of combination of physical schemes is the key to gaining better forecast results.

关 键 词：数值天气预报 WRF模式 TS检验 山洪灾害 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]