基于ArcGis建模分析圈定腾冲火山潜在喷发危险区域  

DELINEATING POTENTIAL RISK AREAS OF VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN TENGCHONG REGION BASED ON ARCGIS MODELING ANALYSIS

作　　者：龚丽文[1] 李霓[1] 樊祺诚[1] 张柳毅[1] 曹园园[1] 陈丽娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所活动构造与火山重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国地震局地球物理研究所实时地震学与地震监测预报技术研究室,北京100081

出　　处：《地震地质》2015年第1期94-109,共16页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：中国地震局地震行业科研专项(201108001);国家自然科学基金(41472305)共同资助

摘　　要：火山是基于充足的岩浆源、通畅的岩浆通道及较高的岩浆温度形成的,同时受地形、岩性及历史火山喷发条件等因素的控制。结合前人的研究成果,以岩浆房、断层和岩浆温度为主要因素,同时以岩性、应力、应变及火山分布为辅助因素,利用Arc Gis中的Modelbuilder工具进行建模分析,并将每种因素按危险程度分9个等级,通过加权叠加,得出腾冲地区火山喷发危险区域等级图,从而圈定了该地区潜在的火山喷发危险区域,并且根据图中颜色的变化直观地显示出各地区的喷发危险程度。建模研究结果表明,目前最危险的地区是荷花—马鞍山—上庄一带的断层附近;其次分别是曲石—焦山—大坡头、腾冲—清水—荷花、五合—团田一带的断层附近。为预测未来火山喷发可能性提供了理论依据。Abundant magma sources,open magma conduit and high magma temperature are the three major factors that affect volcanic eruption. Meanwhile,topographic condition,lithology of overlying strata and condition of historical volcanic eruptions also restrict the formation of a volcano. Combining the previous researches on Tengchong volcanic cluster and considering the depth of magma chamber,location of fault and magma temperature as the main factors,as well as lithology,strain,stress,volcano distribution density as accessory factors,we set up a model with Arc Gis Modelbuilder.Through a series of modeling,analyzing and weighted stack calculating on the basis of classifying all the factors concerned as nine grades according to the risk degree of each factor to the eruption,we finally work out a grading map indicating the potential risk of volcanic eruption in Tengchong region.According to the different colors shown in the map,we can see clearly that the most dangerous area is near the Hehua-Ma＇anshan-Shangzhuang Fault. In addition,Qushi-Jiaoshan-Dapotou,TengchongQingshui-Hehua and Wuhe-Tuantian faults are also worth paying attention to. The article provides the theoretical basis for forecast of future volcanic eruption hazard.

关 键 词：火山潜在喷发危险区 ArcGis建模分析 加权叠加 腾冲 

分 类 号：P317.3[天文地球—固体地球物理学]