基于云模型的中运河水安全评价  

Assessment on water security of Zhong Canal based on cloud model

作　　者：乔丹颖 刘凌[1] 闫峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2015年第2期26-29,共4页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51279060);江苏省水利科技项目(2012023)

摘　　要：为了全面衡量河流水安全评价过程中的随机性与模糊性,将云模型引入河流水安全评价,并论述了确定度向量标准化的重要性,根据实测值和评价阈值,构建评价指标相对于各评语的确定度向量,而后结合权重计算河流的综合水安全确定度向量,并判断河流安全等级。并以南水北调东线工程的骨干输水河道——中运河为例,进行河流水安全评价,结果表明:中运河2012年水安全等级为"良";与模糊综合模型和集对分析模型评价结果对比发现,云模型是一种行之有效的河流水安全评价模型。In order to measure the problems of randomness and fuzziness during the river water security assessment, a cloud model is introduced, and the importance of determining vector standardization was discussed. Based on the measured values and the evaluation threshold, the index＇ s quantitative certainty vector to the collection of comments is generated. And then the comprehensive certainty vector of river water security is calculated based on the weight, and the level of river security is determined. Taking Zhong Canal which is the major channel in the eastern route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project as an example, the author of paper made a water security assessment. The results show that the river security level of Zhong Canal is ＂good＂ in the year of 2012 ; compared with the assessment results by fuzzy synthetic model and set pair analysis model, the cloud model is an effective model of river water security assessment.

关 键 词：河流 水安全评价 云模型 正态云发生器 中运河 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]