基于马尔科夫模型的太湖水质综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation of water quality in Taihu Lake based on Markov model

作　　者：范丽丽[1,2] 邱利[3,4] 田威[5] 李梦迪[4] 许贺伟 章双双 李一平[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [4]河海大学环境学院,江苏南京210098 [5]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029 [6]南京信息工程大学滨江学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《水资源保护》2015年第2期50-54,共5页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51409172);国家自然科学基金(51379061);江苏省自然科学基金(BK20131370)

摘　　要：对2000—2005年太湖整个湖区水质监测资料进行分析,得出不同湖区水质浓度均值,采用灰色聚类法对各湖区水质进行评价,并根据马尔科夫模型计算各湖区水质季节变化的相对进步度。结果表明:太湖水质的时空差异性较大,竺山湖和梅梁湾的水质最差,为Ⅴ类,而东太湖和东部湖区水质相对较好,为Ⅱ类;不同的水质指标中,NH3-N的空间差异性最大,TN、TP,CODMn的空间差异性相对较小,表明城镇污水是太湖的主要外源污染;竺山湖和梅梁湾的水质季节性变化最大,在夏秋季水质相对较好,冬春季水质相对较差,其他湖区的水质季节性变化很小。The author of this paper analyzed the water quality monitoring data, of Taihu lake from 2000 to 2005, getting the average value of water quality in different areas. The grey clustering method was used to evaluate the water quality of different lake areas, and the relative progress degree of seasonal variation of water quality in different lake areas was calculated by using Markov model. The results show that spatial and temporal differences of water quality in Taihu Lake is obvious： the water quality of Zhushan Lake and Meiliang Bay is worst, the water class is V, but the water quality of east Taihu Lake and eastern of Taihu Lake is relatively better, the water class is Ⅱ. Among different water quality indicators, the degree of spatial heterogeneity of ammonia nitrogen is the largest, followed by the total nitrogen and total phosphorus, while the degree of permanganate index is relatively smaller. The results indicate that sewage is the main source pollution of Taihu Lake. The seasonal variation of water quality in Zhushan Lake and Meiliang Bay is the largest, and the water quality in summer and autumn is relatively better than that in winter and spring. While the seasonal variation of water quality in the other lake areas is small.

关 键 词：马尔科夫模型 水质评价 灰色聚类 时空特性 太湖 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]