基于相似理论和贝叶斯理论的航材失效率确定  

Determination of Aviation Spare Parts Failure Rate Based on Similarity System Theory and Bayesian Theory

作　　者：张帅[1] 肖飞[1] 徐吉辉[1] 李季颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《电光与控制》2015年第4期83-87,共5页Electronics Optics & Control

基　　金：军内预研基金(4010701050103)

摘　　要：为提高舰载航空装备航材备件保障能力,结合某舰载航空装备供应保障需求,基于相似理论和贝叶斯理论进行航材备件失效率研究。基于相似理论初步确定航材备件的初始失效率,在实际使用数据的基础上,运用贝叶斯理论对初始失效率修正得到后验失效率,最后结合实例进行了理论应用分析。In order to improve the logistics support capability of carrier-based aviation spare parts,the failure rate of carrier-based aviation equipment was studied based on similarity system theory and Bayesian theory taking a certain carrier-based logistics support demand as the object. The initial failure rate of aviation spare parts was determined on the basis of similarity system theory. With the application of Bayesian theory,the initial failure rate was amended based on the practically usage data of equipments. Finally,the theoretical application of it was presented with an example.

关 键 词：航材备件 失效率 相似理论 模糊层次分析法 贝叶斯理论 

分 类 号：V271.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] E917[军事]