区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析方法研究  

Research on Reliability of Multi-state System Based on Interval Triangular Fuzzy Bayesian Networks

作　　者：张瑞军[1,2] 张路路[1] 王晓伟[1,2] 王囡囡[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学,济南250101 [2]山东省高校机械工程创新技术重点实验室,济南250101

出　　处：《中国机械工程》2015年第8期1092-1097,共6页China Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51175312);山东建筑大学博士基金资助项目(XNBS1244)

摘　　要：针对传统系统可靠性分析方法在处理模糊信息方面的不足,建立了基于区间三角模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析方法。通过区间三角模糊子集来描述根节点故障率;基于区间三角模糊子集,构建了区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络模型;研究了区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析算法,给出了求解叶节点故障模糊可能性与去模糊根节点后验概率的计算方法。最后,对塔机倾覆事故进行了可靠性分析,验证了该方法的有效性。In order to overcome the shortages of dealing with fuzzy information in traditional sys- tem reliability analysis methods, this paper proposed a new method of reliability analysis method based on interval triangular fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network. An interval triangular fuzzy subset was built to describe fault rate of root nodes. A model of the interval triangular fuzzy multi-states Bayesian net- works was built based on the interval triangular fuzzy subset. The calculation methods of leaf node fault probability were proposed,and the deblured posterior probability was researched by the reliabili- ty analysis algorithms of interval triangular fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network. At last, the method was applied in the reliability analysis of tower crane overturning accident, which shows that the pro- posed method is feasibility.

关 键 词：区间三角模糊 贝叶斯网络 多态系统 塔机倾覆事故 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论]