辽宁省冬季低温年特征及影响因子研究  

Characteristics of Winter Low Temperature Years and Its Impact Factors in Liaoning Province

作　　者：张蕊[1] 赵连伟[2] 房一禾[2] 李辑 李克非 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省沈阳市东陵区气象局,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]沈阳区域气候中心 [3]辽宁省气象科学研究所 [4]辽宁省气象装备保障中心

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2015年第7期236-238,241,共4页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局项目"东北地区夏季低温预测技术改进;集成及业务应用"(CMAGJ2011M14)

摘　　要：为了深入分析辽宁省冬季低温年的演变特征,系统研究辽宁省冬季低温年的主要影响因子,以便为实际气候预测业务提供有价值的参考依据。以辽宁省53个测站1961-2013年月平均的气温资料开展研究,结果表明：辽宁省冬季低温年的发生经历了3个不同的阶段：1961-1986年为第1个阶段,辽宁省冬季低温年连续多次发生;1987-1998年为第2个阶段,无辽宁省冬季低温年出现;1999年以来为第3个阶段,辽宁省冬季低温年和高温年交替发生。1961年以来,辽宁省共出现22个冬季低温年,低温年表现出明显的连续2~3年或以上发生的特点。因子分析表明：北极涛动（AO）、经向型大气环流、东亚冬季风、拉尼娜事件是辽宁省冬季低温年的主要影响因子,拉尼娜事件和AO负位相是辽宁省冬季低温年的主导因素,而东亚冬季风偏强是造成辽宁省冬季低温年的关键因素。In order to analyze the variation characteristics of winter low temperature years in Liaoning Province,the impact factors of winter low temperature years in Liaoning Province was systematically studied, so as to provide valuable reference for the climatic prediction.Based on the monthly mean temperature data of 53 observational stations in Liaoning Province during 1961 to 2013 ,this study was carried out.Results showed that winter low temperature years in Liaoning Province had three phases：Low temperature years in Liaoning continuous appeared during 1961 to 1986.During 1987 to1998 there was no low temperature event appeared.Low temperature event and high temperature event appeared alternately during 1999 to 2013. During 1961 to 2013 ,there were 22 times of low temperature event appeared.The characteristic of extreme low temperature years showed continuous 2 to 3 years or more.The study of impact factors demonstrate that,AO,meridional circulation,East Asian winter monsoon and La nina are the impact factors of low temperature years in Liaoning Province.The leading impact factors are La nina and the negative phase of AO, and the strong phase of East Asian winter monsoon was the key impact factor.

关 键 词：冬季低温年 演变特征 影响因子 主导因素 关键因素 辽宁省 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]