房价上涨预期对逆向选择现象的抑制效应：来自二手房交易实验的证据  

Inhibitory effect of house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection:Evidence from resale housing trading experiments

作　　者：张红[1,2] 孙煦[1,2] 张洋[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京100084 [3]北京林业大学经济管理学院,物业管理系,北京100083

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第1期63-67,73,共6页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143)

摘　　要：该文研究房价上涨预期对二手房市场逆向选择现象的影响。首先,从理论角度提出房价上涨预期指标与逆向选择程度的测算公式。之后,基于现实二手房市场交易特点设计和实施经济学实验,通过实验模拟不同房价上涨预期条件下的二手房交易过程,并收集数据。最后,基于实验数据对房价上涨预期指标与市场逆向选择程度进行测算,并检验房价上涨预期对市场逆向选择的影响。研究表明:严重的信息不对称是二手房市场产生逆向选择现象的主要诱因;当前市场上交易人的房价上涨预期在一定程度上暂时抑制了逆向选择现象的发生。预防和解决二手房市场逆向选择现象的根本途径是降低信息不对称程度。This article focuses on the inhibitory effect exerted by house price bullish sentiment on adverse selection in resale housing markets. Firstly, theoretical methods are developed for the bullish sentiment index （BSI） and the adverse selection level （ASL）. Economics experiments were then designed to study the resale housing market characteristics in different bullish sentiment environments. The BSI and ASL were calculated from the experimental data to study the effect of bullish sentiment on the adverse selection. The research shows that severe information asymmetry is the main cause of adverse selection in the resale housing market. The bullish sentiment of traders in the market temporarily restrains the adverse selection to some extent. The degree of information asymmetry should be reduced to minimize the adverse selection problem in the resale housing market.

关 键 词：二手房市场 房价上涨预期 逆向选择 实验经济学 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]