基于搜寻匹配模型的住房限购政策效果仿真与评价  

Simulation and evaluation of the home-purchase limit policy effect based on a search-matching model

作　　者：张红[1,2] 李洋[1,2] 陈玄冰 

机构地区：[1]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学城镇化与产业发展研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第1期68-73,共6页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143)

摘　　要：为评价住房限购政策效果,该文构建住房市场搜寻匹配模型,将交易市场和租赁市场纳入统一的研究框架,数值仿真了限购政策约束下家庭租买选择与住房价格之间的动态关系。结果表明:在限购住房市场中,房租对需求冲击的响应比房价更敏感,房租水平在短期内将快速上升,并大幅提高租金收益率。可见,限购政策通过冻结部分购房需求抑制当期房价上涨,但是需求冲击会推动房租的上涨,并通过租金收益率对资产价格的传导作用提高房价。据此建议,应及时采用市场化的经济调控手段替代强制性行政干预政策,从而长期稳定市场预期和房价波动。A search-matching model constructed with an ownership of the housing market was market and rental market consolidated into a unified research framework to evaluate the effect of the home-purchase limit policy. Numerical simulations were used to model the dynamic relationship between the household tenure choice and housing price volatility under the home-purchase limit policy. The results show that, in a housing market restricted by the purchase limit policy, the rent is more sensitive than the price to demand shock, with the rent immediately rising to increase the rental return. Thus, housing price growth can be restrained in the current period by freezing the housing demand, but the demand shock will still drive up the rent with further increases in the housing price through the rental return in subsequent periods. Accordingly, this mandatory administrative policy should be replaced by market-oriented economic measures, so that unrealistic market expectations and housing prices can be stabilized in the long run.

关 键 词：搜寻匹配模型 住房限购政策 家庭租买选择 房价 数值仿真 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]