石化园区规划大气环境风险模拟方法与案例  

Modeling regional atmospheric risks of petrochemical park planning

作　　者：刘毅[1] 刘龙[1] 李王锋 董业斌[3] 张秀青[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [2]北京清控人居环境研究院有限公司,北京100083 [3]大连市环境科学设计研究院,大连116023

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第1期80-86,共7页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：中国环境保护部环保公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201209043)

摘　　要：为定量评估石化园区规划中的区域尺度大气环境风险水平,该文从源头预防高风险产业集聚导致的布局矛盾,综合运用风险识别技术、CALPUFF大气扩散模型、空间分析方法,构建了石化园区规划层面大气环境风险模拟方法。以某石化园区规划为例,对涉及丙烯腈、氯气、光气、硫化氢、氨气的6个重大危险源的大气风险开展了不同季节下的事故扩散模拟。结果表明:1 141.5km2(占评价区域98.7%)范围内大气环境风险水平不同程度提高,其中事故后可能对人体造成不可恢复影响的范围达到326.5km2(28.2%);秋季气象条件最不利于事故扩散,区域风险水平高于其他季节;二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯(MDI)项目对区域大气风险水平变化的贡献超过90%。An integrated method combining risk analysis, CALPUFF dispersion model, and spatial analyses, were used to assess the regional atmospheric risk caused by major risk sources in petrochemical park plans. A typical petrochemical park in the planning stage was selected as the case study. The risks of six major sources, involving chlorine, phosgene, hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and acrylonitrile, were simulated in different seasons. The results show that the atmospheric risk is increased in 98.7% of the region 1141.5 km2. In 28.2% of the area, i.e. 326.5 km2, human health may be adversely affected after some accidents. The meteorological conditions in the fall are not conducive to pollution dispersion. The highest risks come from the diphenyl methane diisocyanate produeing（MDI） project that contributes more than 90% of the increment in the regional atmospheric risk.

关 键 词：规划环境风险评价 区域风险 CALPUFF大气扩散模型 石化园区 事故风险 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X321