基于模糊数学的重庆地区雷电灾害风险评估方法研究  

Research on the Lightning Risk Assessment Method for Chongqing Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

作　　者：余蜀豫[1,2,3] 任艳[1,2] 覃彬全[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市雷电灾害鉴定与防御工程技术研究中心,重庆400000 [2]重庆市防雷中心,重庆400000 [3]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第2期75-78,84,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：重庆市科技平台与基地建设(cstc2013pt-gc00001)

摘　　要：科学合理的雷电灾害风险评估能有效指导防雷减灾工作,不过目前雷电风险评估体系尚不完善,在某些时候不能真实地评价项目的雷电灾害风险,比如在评估大型住宅小区、大面积的厂房等时,现有的评估结果不能准确地反映客观风险。在深入研究雷电成灾机制和重庆雷电活动规律的基础上,利用模糊数学理论,通过致灾因子、暴露性和承灾体易损性三个方面进行分析,提出重庆地区的雷电风险评估方法。通过具体的评估验证,该方法有较好的适用性,能更好地为防雷减灾服务,也能完善现有的雷电灾害风险评估体系。Reasonable and scientific lightning disaster risk assessment can effectively reduce losses caused by lightning,but at present the lightning risk assessment system is not perfect,sometimes it cannot well evaluate actual lightning disaster risks.For some certain occasions,IEC62305-2 standard dose not well reflect the true lightning risk,such as large-scale residential district,a large area factory,etc.In these cases,on the basis of in-depth study on the mechanism of lightning disaster,the lightning risk can be analyzed by three aspects of hazard,exposure and vulnerability of hazard bearing body.By AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory,the lightning risk assessment formula for Chongqing region is obtained.Through the lightning risk assessment method specific assessment verification shows that this method has better applicability and can better serve lightning protection and disaster reduction in Chongqing region,and it can be a good supplement for IEC62305-2 lightning risk assessment.

关 键 词：雷电灾害 风险评估 模糊数学理论 防雷减灾 重庆地区 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]