近57年江苏沿海降水量演变特征分析  

Evolution characteristics of precipitation along the coastal area of Jiangsu Province in recent 57 years

作　　者：张宇[1] 钟平安[1] 万新宇[1] 曹明霖 马彪[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2015年第2期198-201,205,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题(2012BAB03B03);国家自然科学基金项目(51179044)

摘　　要：基于江苏沿海1957年-2013年逐月降水量序列资料,采用Mann-Kendall法、滑动t-检验、Morlet小波法分析了江苏沿海代表时段降水量变化趋势、突变点和周期特征。结果表明,近57年江苏沿海年、汛期、枯季降水量均呈不显著减少趋势,区域上则呈现北部减少、南部增加趋势;年、汛期、枯季降水量均未发生显著突变;各代表时段降水量变化具有13年左右的主周期,区域上震荡周期一致性较好;未来几年,年、汛期、枯季降水将有所增加。Study of the evolution rule of precipitation along the coastal area of Jiangsu Province is of great significance for the development and construction of its coastal area as well as the allocation and management of water resources.Based on the monthly precipitation data（1957-2013）along the coastal area of Jiangsu Province,the variation trend,mutation points,and periodicity of precipitation in the representative periods were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test,sliding t test,and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results showed that the annual precipitation and precipitation in the flood and dry seasons decrease significantly in recent 57years;precipitation decreases in the north while increases in the south;precipitation has no abrupt change in the representative periods;precipitation variation has a primary periodicity of 13 years,and the regional variation periodicity is consistent;and precipitation in the representative periods will increase in the future.

关 键 词：降水量 演变特征 江苏沿海 MANN-KENDALL检验 滑动t-检验 MORLET小波 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]