区域地质灾害评价的空间效应分析  

Spatial effect analysis of regional geological hazards

作　　者：朱吉祥[1] 张礼中[1] 周小元[1] 陆琰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所,石家庄050061

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2015年第2期334-338,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：中国地质调查局国土资源大调查项目"全国主要城市环境地质综合评价"(1212010535501);"地下水资源数据集成与服务系统建设"(1212011120426)

摘　　要：区域地质灾害评价依赖于具体的时空尺度。由于评价因子在时间上的非线性演变规律与在空间上的非均质性分布特征,区域地质灾害评价必然会受尺度效应的影响。但是由于地质灾害影响因素(例如地层岩性、地形地貌等)演变的相对缓慢性,目前区域地质灾害的尺度效应主要表现为空间效应。在探讨导致区域地质灾害评价空间效应内在因素的基础上,分析了空间效应对区域地质灾害评价不确定性的影响机制,对研究区域地质灾害评价的不确定性,提高评价的精度具有一定的理论价值与实际意义。Evaluation of the regional geological hazards depends on the specific spatial and temporal scale.Due to the nonlinear evolution in the temporal scale and heterogeneity in the spatial scale of the evaluation indexes,the geological hazard assessment is inevitably impacted by the scale effect.However,the evolution of factors（such as the stratum and topography）is relatively slow,the scale effect presents mainly as spatial effect.Based on analysis of the internal factors which cause the spatial effect of the regional geological hazards,the influencing mechanism of spatial effect on the uncertainty of the regional geological hazards assessment was investigated,which is of great significance for the study of uncertainty and improvement of evaluation precision of regional geological hazards.

关 键 词：区域地质灾害 空间效应 危险性评价 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]