转型时期中国地区产能过剩测度——基于协整法和随机前沿生产函数法的比较分析  

THE MEASUREMENT OF EXCESS CAPACITY IN CHINESE PROVINCES DURING THE PERIOD OF TRANSITION——Using the Methods of Cointegration and SFP

作　　者：程俊杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省社会科学院区域发展研究中心 [2]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,邮政编码210093

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2015年第4期13-29,共17页Economic Theory and Business Management

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目(13WTB021)的资助

摘　　要：本文运用协整法和随机前沿生产函数法对2001—2011年我国30个省(市)的制造业产能利用率进行测度及比较分析。本文研究发现:(1)两种方法得出的产能利用率基本一致;(2)产能利用率变化呈现明显的经济周期特征;(3)东部地区的产能利用率整体低于中西部地区;(4)我国地区层面的产能过剩风险可能正向全局蔓延。本文进一步将30个省(市)划分为确定性过剩、可能性过剩以及潜藏过剩风险三种类型。This paper used the cointegration method and the stochastic frontier production function to measure industrial capacity utilization of China＇s 30 provinces in 2001—2011,and empirically decomposed the effects of different factors on the capacity utilization.The study found as follows.First,the two methods of the regional industrial capacity utilization are basically identical.Second,the change of capacity utilization shows obvious economic cycle characteristics.Third,the capacity utilization of the eastern region is lower than the central and western regions.Fourth,China＇s risk of excess capacity is spreading from the local to the country.After examining regional inventory as well as economic benefit index,30 provinces could be divided into three types which are certainty excess,possibility excess and underlying excess risk.

关 键 词：产能过剩 测度 产能利用率 协整法 随机前沿生产函数法 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224