货币政策前瞻性指引有助于稳定经济——基于预期视角的数量分析  

Can Forward Guidance in Monetary Policy Stabilize the Economy?——Quantitative Analysis Under Expected Perspective

作　　者：郝晓辉[1] 许玥[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [2]中国人民银行金融稳定局,北京100800

出　　处：《广义虚拟经济研究》2015年第1期39-47,共9页Research on the Generalized Virtual Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70821061)

摘　　要：预期在广义虚拟经济中处于重要地位,是经济活动的主要驱动力之一,而货币政策前瞻性指引即是通过引导公众形成对货币政策的预期以达到维护经济稳定的目的。本文在新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型框架下,运用贝叶斯方法,从预期的角度研究我国货币政策前瞻性指引需针对的主要经济目标及预期冲击影响宏观经济的数量特征。研究发现,货币政策预期冲击的短期效应更强;货币政策预期冲击对通胀的影响显著,其次是对就业的影响,对产出、消费、投资和资本的影响相对较小;通胀与产出、消费、投资和资本同方向波动。实行货币政策前瞻性应主要针对通胀和就业目标,引导公众形成可预期的货币政策环境有助于维护宏观经济的稳定。Expectation plays an important role in the generalized virtual economy, which is one of the main driving forces of economic activities. Forward guidance in monetary policy aims at guiding the public on the proper formation of monetary policy expectations in order to maintain economic stability. This paper explores the main economic targets which forward guidance in monetary policy need to focus on and the quantity characteristic of the effect of news shocks on China’s macroeconomic by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE model）. The Bayesian method is employed to estimate the parameters of the DSGE model. Main results are as following：the effect of short-term expectation of mon-etary policy is stronger;the influence of news shocks of monetary policy to inflation is most significant, then to employment, while the inlfuence to output, consumption, investment and capital is relatively small;inlfation, output, consumption, investment and capital lfuctuate in the same direction. Forward guidance in monetary policy should be focused on inflation and employment targets. Guiding the public to form a pre-dictable monetary policy environment will help to maintain macroeconomic stability.

关 键 词：广义虚拟经济 预期 货币政策前瞻性指引 DSGE 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]