广义熵权法在大连中期天气预报中的应用  

Application of Generalized Entropy Weight Method to Medium-range Weather Forecast of Dalian

作　　者：马鹏辉[1] 杨燕军[2] 刘铁军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军海军海洋水文气象中心 [2]中国人民解放军92727部队

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2015年第1期103-107,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：海军武器装备预先研究项目(4010103040204)资助

摘　　要：为发挥不同模式数值预报产品的各自优势,提高数值预报产品的综合应用效果,通过引入广义熵权的概念,将数值产品的预报场与分析场或实况资料进行对比分析,进而动态分步跟踪评估不同模式数值预报产品的中期预报效果。利用该方法对大连地区历史天气个例进行中期天气预报模拟试验,并将其用于某次导弹发射任务气象保障。结果表明,该方法能够客观、定量地比较不同模式数值预报产品之间的异同,较好地挖掘各类数值预报产品的阶段性优势以便预报员决策时选用,从而在一定程度上提高中期天气预报的准确率。In order to exploit the advantages of different numerical forecast products to the full and improve the application effect of numerical forecast products, the conception of generalized entropy weight is introduced in this paper to make contrast between the prediction fields of numerical forecast products and the analysis fields or observational data, thereby to evaluate the medium range prediction effect of different numerical forecast products through the way of dynamic step tracking. This method is applied to the medium range forecasting simulation of historical weather examples in Dalian, and used to meteorological servicing to one missile launching task. The result shows that this method can analyze the similarities and differences of numerical forecast products objectively and quantitatively, and find out the stage advantage of different numerical forecast products better so as forecasters to make choice in forecasting, thereby improve the accuracy of medium range weather forecast to some extent.

关 键 词：数值预报产品 广义熵权 动态分步跟踪 效果评估 

分 类 号：P456.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]