煤炭价格波动对煤炭富集区经济影响研究:以山西为例  

The impact of coal price fluctuation on coal enrichment zone's economic:based on Shanxi's data

作　　者：张洪潮[1] 王素芳[1] 马侃[1] 李银柱 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西太原030024 [2]山西省煤炭运销集团有限公司,山西太原030002

出　　处：《中国矿业》2015年第4期45-49,共5页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家软科学研究计划出版项目"煤炭主体功能区产业集群化模式研究"资助(编号:2011GXS9K003);国家社会科学基金重点项目"多维视角下采煤沉陷区复合治理研究"资助(编号:14AZD093)

摘　　要：我国煤炭资源大多分布在欠发达地区,这些地区经济增长与矿产资源开发关系密切。近年来,由于煤炭市场需求乏力、产能过剩以及国外煤炭冲击等原因,煤炭价格波动较大,煤炭富集地区经济也受到一定冲击。文章以山西省为例,基于2005年1月至2014年3月数据,运用计量经济模型分析了煤炭价格波动对山西GDP的影响效力和影响时滞。结果表明:煤炭价格波动对山西GDP具有明显的短期正向和长期正向冲击效力,平均时滞4.5个月。基于以上研究,文章从完善煤炭价格监测预警机制、深化煤矿企业兼并重组,以及加快产业转型步伐等方面提出政策建议,以期为资源富集区可持续发展提供理论依据。Most of coal resources located in less developed areas ,where the economic closely related with the development of the mineral resources .In recent years ,due to the weak coal market demand ,excess capacity ,the impact of foreign coal and other reasons ,the price of coal fluctuates greatly ,and the economy of coal‐rich areas has also been affected .This paper takes Shanxi Province as an example ,based in the data from January 2005 to March 2014 ,uses econometric models to analyze the affection of the coal price fluctuations to the validity and impact of delay of Shanxi’s GDP .The results show that the long‐term and short‐term impact of coal price fluctuation to Shanxi’s GDP is positive ,and average time lag is 4 .5 months . Based on these studies above ,in expectations to help the resource‐rich regions to achieve sustainable development ,the paper make the following recommendations ：Improve monitoring and early warning mechanisms coal prices ,Deepening of coal mining enterprises mergers and acquisitions and accelerating the pace of industrial restructuring .

关 键 词：煤炭价格波动 煤炭富集区 影响效力 影响时滞 

分 类 号：F403.3[经济管理—产业经济]