洪山泉流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应  

Response of Hongshan Spring Discharge to Climate Change and Human Activities

作　　者：邓安利[1,2] 王帅[1] 曹耀武[1] 王敏黛 李洁祥 郭清海[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]山西省水利厅,山西太原030002

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2015年第2期11-14,共4页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：山西省水利厅项目(DSGS(F)-QT-SJ-92(2013))

摘　　要：利用回归分析理论通过建立洪山泉流量的混合回归模型,揭示了洪山泉当年流量与自身前一年流量、前四年的降水量以及当年岩溶水开采量的相关性;通过分析加权平均降雨量与泉流量的关系,进一步揭示了1980年后岩溶水开采等人类活动对洪山泉流量衰减的影响,最终得出洪山泉流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应机制,并在此基础上进行了洪山泉流量预测。该研究可为合理开发洪山泉提供依据,对保护洪山泉岩溶水资源、恢复泉流量具有重要意义。This paper establishes a mixture regression model of Hongshan Spring discharge based on regression analysis method. The model reveals the correlation between Hongshan Spring discharge of the year and other factors,including Hongshan Spring discharge of last year,precipitation of the last four years and yield of karst water of the year. Through the analysis of the relationship between weighted average precipitation and the spring discharge,the paper concludes that the human activities,such as karst water exploitation which started around 1980,have influences on the decay of Hongshan Spring discharge. At the end,the paper figures out the response mechanism of Hongshan Spring discharge to climate change and human activities and makes prediction of the discharge of Hongshan Spring.

关 键 词：洪山泉流量 降水量 岩溶水系统 回归分析 人类活动 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]