基于FT与BCCT的采油管柱落井事故溯源  

Traceability Research of Oil Production String Falling Accident Based on FT and BCCT

作　　者：李威君 梁伟[1] 宋迪 张来斌[1] 姜璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院,北京102249 [2]中石油北京天然气管道有限公司华北储气库分公司,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2015年第2期97-101,共5页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：针对采油管柱落井事故原因多且复杂的问题,基于FT与BCCT对采油管柱落井事故进行溯源分析。通过建立采油管柱落井事故树(FT)计算最小割集,绘制等效事故树;结合博德事故因果连锁理论(BCCT)确定直接原因、间接原因,在此基础上追溯其根本原因。结果表明:造成采油管柱落井事故的直接原因是油管挂断裂、油管断裂、修井队操作失误、卡瓦故障;间接原因是油管挂或新油管或丝扣或卡瓦质量差、油管挂或油管长期服役、修井频繁、操作不稳、解卡不当、起下钻操作不当、对扣作业不当、设备失灵、卡瓦磨损严重、卡瓦操作失误;根本原因是与管理相关的产品采购、校准、检验、试验过程管理不当,缺少寿命预测或设备更新改造不合理,人员的培训不足或考核不合格,未制定合理的设备检验维修计划。最后通过钻井现场实例分析,说明管理缺陷对采油管柱落井事故发生的影响。Due to the complexity and quantity of oil production string falling accident causes, this paper introduces traceability research to identify the direct causes, indirect causes and root causes. Based on the previous study,this paper establishes the string falling fault tree （FT）,calculates the minimum cut sets,draws the equivalent fault tree and finally determines the direct causes and indirect causes combining with FT and Bird＇s Causal Chain Theory （BCCT） ,which is the key theory to trace the root causes. The analysis results show that the direct causes of the oil production string falling accident are tubing hanger failure, tubing failure,workover operation error and slips failure. And the indirect causes are poor quality of tubing hang er,new tubing and slips,over term service of tubing hanger and tubing, frequent workover,insecure operation,improper unfreezing, improper tripping operation, equipment failure, wear and misoperation of slips. The root causes are mismanagement of equipment procurement,calibration,inspection or test, lack of life prediction or unreasonable equipment upgrading, inadequate personnel training or unqualified examination, lack of reasonable equipment inspection maintenance plan,which are closely related to management. In the end,traceability analysis of a drilling site example indicates the effect of management shortcomings on oil production string falling accident.

关 键 词：采油管柱落井 事故树(FT) 博德事故因果连锁理论(BCCT) 钻井安全管理 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]